“Let us realize that at some point the explosion will happen,” said Lithosphere Professor of Physics, Seismology and Applied Geophysics of AUTH Costas Papazachos, speaking at the scientific workshop: “The following, and the Department of Rural and Surveying Engineering of the Aristotle University of Thessaloniki.

‘There is a basic assumption that the volcano will behave in the future as in the past“, The professor explained, adding that”Volcanic hazard is only estimated in the long run by studying the story of the phenomenon“And”The risk assessment approach is to define the basic scenarios on what is the worst that can happen in the short term in the next 10-20 years, what is the worst scenario, but also the most likely scenario“

In this context, he appeared reassuring, noting that major explosions, such as Minoan, are rare- they occur every 20,000 years- but devastating on a huge scale. “In the long run only from the history of the volcano can we learn. Great explosions dissolve life on a huge scale. Given the explosion in 1600 BC. If nothing is very extreme, some other people will face it after 20,000-30,000 years. It will be something incredibly dramatic, unthinkable. But it will happen“, He noted.

He added that computational models indicate that the lesion of the plates before the big explosion took place during 50-100 years, “That is, although the explosion is enormous, it is a question of whether it is prepared a century ago, the material is very quickly concentrated” “The explosion occurred within 24 hours. It is therefore a dramatic and relatively short -lived“, He explained.

The adverse scenario for Santorini in the near future

Mr Papazachos has drew attention to sub -sub -volcanic eruptions, which are less devastating than a large one, and have happened in the recent past. “In Santorini you see all these mattresses and you could swear to be the same. And if you do analyzes and see rare land or other elements, you find that they are completely different explosions: half meter, one meter, twenty points, two meters of levels. These are various sub -scale eruptions 4 to 5, namely barbarian explosions, which is the most adverse short -term scenario. So if he bursts this tomorrow in Santorini, two meters of ashes, he will overthrow the whole life in the area, but it is something manageable, “however, as he explained, the most likely scenario is the small burned -out bursts, that is, small explosions such as those that shaped the old and new.

“There is a strange situation in Greece, where we have three bursts in the 20th century and yet no one believes that there can be an explosion in Greece“, Mr. Papazachos observed.

Based on the basis of the latest volcanic explosion in Santorini in 1950, the professor noted that “it is a strange model that the longer the explosion, the longer the period before the explosion” and given that the next explosion has passed 75 years, the next explosion may last 1,200 days. “It’s 3.5 to 4 years. So when the hustle and bustle begins in Santorini, it will not start on Monday and end on Friday. It will end in 4 years. Santorini is 3% of GDP as income and obviously there will be a matter for 4 years. We have to take it earlier, as people took it in older times, “he said.

Finally, he developed the contribution of the Aristotle University of Thessaloniki and the Santorini Volcano Study and Monitoring Institute (IMPI) to seismic surveillance, underlining the need for continuous scientific surveillance through the island’s installed networks. “Although the magnitude of the next explosion cannot be assessed, monitoring of the Santorini volcano ensures early detection of an outburst that can lead to explosion and better assessment of the effects of future outbreaks/ explosions. The study of the deeper structure of the volcano revealed the center of all the great explosions of Santorini in northern Caldera, which coincides with the point of rising magma in the outbreaks of 2011-2012 and 2024-2025. The study of the most superficial structure of the volcano, as well as its morphology, revealed the existence of important territorial/ topographic aids, explaining the damage to the Amorgos earthquake in 1956, as well as the possible effects of future earthquakes on the island-tectonic or volcanic.

Director of Geodynamic Institute: In three days we had a number of earthquakes equivalent of the year

The earthquake-volcanic crisis 2024-2025 in the Amorgos-Santorini area is a rare geodynamic exacerbation, with an extremely increased number of earthquakes, mainly from the beginning of February 2025, according to the recommendation made by the Director of the Geodetic Institute of National Observatory Earthquakes from one year, with a climax on February 2-12, with 213 earthquakes over 4 Richter. The majority of the subdues are limited between 7-13 km, while the earthquake was observed from Columbus to Anhydros.

The phenomenon is characterized as a seismic – earthquake -free earthquake – which may be linked to magma penetration, fluid entry into pre -existing tectonic zones into the bark, acresic (slow slip into active crack) or a combination of the above mechanisms.

Mr Karastathis stood in the crucial moments of those critical days, such as the separation of seismicity from volcanic activity. “In three days we had the multitude of earthquakes equivalent to the year. The shift was on fire, I saw scenes incredible with the panic analysts, where they saw the monitors constantly tanned and ran. On a daily basis 27-30 earthquakes above M4.0 and hundreds of smaller ones were analyzed by the Geodynamic Institute. Earthquakes were at a huge frequency that exceeds even the capabilities of the automatic system. It was done on a regular basis and analysis with automated mechanical learning methods to detect smaller earthquakes, “he noted.

Referring to the upgrading of the monitoring and the contribution of the Geodynamic Institute of EAA, its director noted: New seismological, geodetic and tidal stations were added to the area. The Geodynamic Institute instituted immediately seismological stations in Thira, Thirasia, Anafi, Amorgos and Astypalaia. In the past, it had also contributed to two positions in the IMPI/AUTH seismology. He also installed three GNSS stations (Ancient Thira, Oia, Anhydrus) in collaboration with EKPA. And repair one more in Thira. AUTH also added seismological stations to anhydrous and Christian. He renewed positions on the Santorini network, “he said.

Regarding the situation today, he said that “the seismic sequence in the marine area of ​​Anhydros between Thira and Amorgos is maintained steadily at a low level”, but “the seismic sequence does not exclude the sporadic manifestation of stronger earthquakes”.

Mr Karastathis pointed out that the National Observatory of Athens reinforces through the NOA-AEGIS program the Greek and volcanic surveillance infrastructure, in coordination with the single national network of seismographs and existing local observatories in Santorini, Methanas. “With the cooperation of all related bodies, such as Greek universities, IMPIS, local authorities, foreign research agencies, the NCA aims to create a national effort to monitor active volcanoes in the country. Studies will follow the installation of the equipment by upgrading the knowledge of the Santorini volcano, “he said.

Territories

Professor of Geodesy and TATM/AUTH TATM/AUTH Christos Pikidas, talked about the monitoring of the Santorini Hospital from the first instrumental networks to modern outbursts (2011-2012 & 2024-2025).

“The phenomena of 2024-2025 are similar to those of 2011-2012. Continuous monitoring is critical for valid measures and timely predictions. The volcano is constantly monitored, “he noted. He also pointed out the need to specialize at the operational level of the plan in particular in relation to local infrastructure. “There has been no exercise of its implementation to date,” he said. He referred to the need to strengthen the scientific cooperation of academic research institutions. “The establishment by the State Volcanic Observatory will allow the volcanic monitoring, timely prediction of possible stimulation and immediately informing the authorities and residents, thereby enhancing security and civil protection. At the same time it will promote scientific research with the participation of all stakeholders, “he noted.

In the monitoring of the earthquake-volcanic exacerbation of 2024-2025 in the area of ​​Santorini-Anhydros, the use of GNSS satellite navigation systems was mentioned by Professor of Geodesy and TATM-TATM-AFTH Stelios Bitharis.

As he said, in 2019 the AUTH and IMPP have installed GNSS stations for geodetic monitoring of volcanic activity in Santorini and in 2025, a total of 32 permanent stations operate in the wider Santorini – Anhydros area. Referring to the surge of seismicity in the area of ​​Anhydros in early February 2025, he said the GNSS data recorded intense and abrupt territorial movements.

“In the early days of February, systematic and rapid territorial movement was observed north-east and change of vertical movement,” Mr Bitharis noted. According to the data, it was observed in the islet of anhydrous army at about three meters a year and N-D horizontal movement and systematic β-α movement of the northern part of Santorini at a rate of about 1.5 meters a year. The pace of deformation lasted about two weeks, and the normalization began on February 22. At the beginning of the phenomenon the gradual sedimentation was 3 cm in 12 days. In the intense period of the phenomenon the maximum horizontal movement reached up to 7.5 cm in 17 days, ie 0.4 per day and the sedimentation of 3.5 cm in 4 days.

The contribution of land-observing satellite data in monitoring of the earthquake-volcanic exacerbation of 2024-2025 in the Santorini-Anydros area, was reported. Professor of the Department of Geology Michalis Foumelis.

Speaking about the role of satellite techniques, in particular the differential radar symbometomy (Insar), in the detection of soil deformations that preceding the seismic exacerbation, he explained that as happened in 2011, so in 2024–25, distortions were observed 1–2 months before intense seismicity.

From satellite data (in particular the Copernicus/Sentinel system) and using two orbiches (ascending-athos) a significant elevation was observed in New Kameni, mainly on the north side, from mid-2024. These changes were low-intensity (millimeters) to the summer of 2024, and the dynamic of the area changed.

The professor stressed continuous monitoring is critical, as signs warn and pointed out the need to create a permanent observatory in Santorini to recognize small, early changes, rather than scientists dependent on occasional follow -up campaigns. “As a scientific community we are in phase to recognize such phenomena. The creation of an observatory I hope this time will be achieved, “he said.

Greetings at the opening of the event was addressed by the Rector of AUTH Prof. Charalambos Fidas, the president of the Department of Rural Surveying Engineering Prof. Vassilios Tsioukas and Prof. of the Department of Geology Prodromos Zani.