People are getting closer to a crucial turning point for climate change, with new estimates showing that the 1.5 degree Celsius threshold of the Paris Agreement may be exceeded in less than three years, as current carbon dioxide emissions continue.

More than 60 top climate scientists warn, in the most timely assessment of the world climate, that the margin of action is narrowing dangerously. The carbon budget, that is, the remaining amount of carbon dioxide that humanity can emit to have a 50% chance of being below the target of 1.5 ° C, has decreased to 130 billion tonnes.

With the annual Co₂ emissions currently ranging from around 40 billion tonnes, this means that there are about three years left until this threshold is exhausted – and the inevitable overrun of the target set in 2015 by nearly 200 countries.

Steady rise of temperature

2024 was the warmest year ever recorded, with the average world temperature reaching 1.36 ° C above pre -industrial levels. Although a single year is not considered an official breach of the Paris Agreement, scientists point out that human activity was the main factor behind the unprecedented heat.

Heating evolves at rising rate of about 0.27 ° C per decade – faster than any period in recorded geological history. At the same time, the heat accumulated in the global climate system has doubled compared to the 1970s and 1980s, and is 25% higher than in the early 21st century.

Oceans ‘swallow’ heat – threats to marine level

About 90% of this excess heat is absorbed by the oceans, exacerbating the thermal expansion of water and contributing to the faster rise in sea level. The rise rate has doubled since the 1990s, increasing the risk of flooding and erosion for millions of people in coastal areas.

Folding glaciers and polar ice, combined with thermal expansion of the seas, enhances the long -term threat to island states, seaside cities and vulnerable ecosystems.

Technological solutions are not a ‘salvation board’

Although there are technological proposals to reduce carbon dioxide emissions in the atmosphere, scientists warn that we should not rely on them as a “salvation board”.

“If we significantly exceed the 1.5 ° C limit, the reversal of overheating with artificial Co₂ removal is becoming more and more doubtful,” said Professor Yieri Rogel from Imperial College London.

A little hope

Researchers point out that even slight increases in temperature are linked to more extreme weather events, ice melting and sea level rises.

“Any fraction of degree we can avoid is translated into less human pain, less losses and more sustainable societies,” Rogel stresses.

Despite the pessimistic image, scientists distinguish a hope: the rates of emissions slow down as pure technologies (such as RES, electricity, energy efficiency) gain ground.