OR climate change It dramatically increases the likelihood of extreme weather conditions that favor catastrophic fires, such as those in 2025 in Turkey, Cyprus and Greece. According to a new scientific study by the World Weather Attribution Team – which also includes Greek scientists from the Technical University of Crete, the National Observatory of Athens and the Institute of Mediterranean Forest Ecosystems – the conditions that led to this year’s big fires are now ten times more likely In relation to the past, due to the apparent effect of anthropogenic climate change.

As noted in the study, which covers the period of June and July, the same trend is prevalent in other Mediterranean countries, with similar results expected for Spain. Scientists warn that, if not limited to burn fuelthe risk even more destructive fires will constantly intensify.

The basic findings of the study

The research team, consisting of 28 experts from universities and national services of Turkey, Greece, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom and the US, points out:

  • OR climate change He set up the frame for fires, affecting the weather in the months, weeks and days before the explosions.
  • Winter rain has been reduced by 14% in the area, exacerbating the summer drought.
  • Intense drought before the fires was 18% this year due to the rise in temperature.
  • The combination of heat, drought and strong winds was 22% more powerful, enhancing the spread of fires.
  • Simultaneous large fires in several European countries are testing the boundaries of firefighters.

For the first time, the annual burned land in Europe has surpassed the 1 million hectares. The study reveals that, in today’s climate with an average temperature increase of 1.3 ° C above pre -industrial levels, extreme fire conditions, formerly appeared once each century, are now being recorded almost every 20 years.

Specific effects of climate change

Scientists analyzed meteorological data and climate models focusing on the huge Eastern Mediterranean fires by the end of July. They measured the total decrease in rainfall (14% compared to the pre -industrial era) and the drought before the fires, which are now 18% more intense. Another important finding is the increase in the frequency of strong gauntial episodes and intense winds (Annual/meltemia), which make up the most to the spread of fire.

According to researchers, “Without climate change, these conditions would be extremely rare”while today they are the new reality for the Mediterranean.

At the same time, recorded Increase in wind speed mainly in the Aegean, which leads to more adverse pyrological conditions. This trend has been observed for the last thirty years and results in the rise of the frequency and intensity of prolonged fuels, which in turn enhance the flammability of dead fuel in the forests, making it difficult to extinguish.

Risks and Need to Change Strategy

Research highlights the importance of reinforcing the precautionary measures Management of Forests and Fuel, but also of upgrading of the level awareness of citizens on the dangers of fires. The existing strategy, which emphasizes the suppression of firefighters and aerial means, is considered inadequate in the conditions formed by climate change. The frequency of extreme events, coupled with the diffusion of fires in many countries at the same time, threatens to run out of treatment.

As Professor Apostolos Voulgarakis points out, “In the last three years in Greece, average temperature has exceeded normal, leading to almost inevitable extreme fires”. Correspondingly, the Director of the National Observatory of Athens, Dr. Costas Lagouvardos, notes: “Increasing the intensity of winds in the summer has exacerbated pyrological conditions, while prolonged heatwaves have now become a habit, bringing extreme drought to the dead plant.”.

For his part, Dr. Gabriel Xanthopoulos stresses that the northeast winds (Annuals) favor the rapid spread of fires in Greece, and now exhibit longer duration and intensity than decades.

The problem becomes particularly intense in areas where inhabited zones adjacent to forest land (Wildland Urban Interface), as a result of urban expansion around the forests. In these areas, the challenge for extinguishing and evacuating is maximum, especially in the densely populated islands and the suburbs of Attica, while Cyprus faces additional difficulties due to the size and air extinguishers.

“It was a very difficult summer for Greece. Hundreds of Red Cross volunteers were mobilized to support the communities affected. Many have suffered burns, respiratory problems and completely destroyed their homes. “points out by volunteer Anastasia Kokkini.

Overall, the World Weather Attribution report reinforces the message that without immediate and radical policy change for fossil fuels and the treatment of climate crisisthe risk of future devastating fires in the Mediterranean will continue to increase with incalculable consequences for humans, forest ecosystems and economics.