An update of the greenhouse gas reduction targets was registered by Brazil, this Thursday (7), at the UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change), thus formalizing a “climate pedaling “.
The new targets appear more than five months after COP26, the United Nations Climate Change Conference, and even so, they still do not formalize all the promises made during the event to the international community.
Among the updated goals are carbon neutrality by 2050, a 37% reduction in greenhouse gases in 2025, compared to 2005 emissions, and a 50% reduction in greenhouse gases in 2030, also compared to 2005.
Brazilian emissions are mainly the result of deforestation and livestock activity.
The promises made during the COP to eliminate deforestation by 2030 and to reduce methane emissions are not included in the document, an absence pointed out by entities such as the Politica por Integer and the Climate Observatory.
The cuts in gas emissions for 2030 and carbon neutrality in 2050 had been announced by the Minister of the Environment, Joaquim Leite, on November 1 of last year.
The organizations also criticize the “climate pedaling” of the goals presented.
The pedaling occurs through the change in the 2005 emissions data, which was updated in the most recent national inventories of greenhouse gases, that is, there was a change in the basis of comparison.
The first Brazilian NDC (acronym for determined national contribution and which can be, more simply, translated as a climate target) is from 2015, the year of the Paris Agreement. In it, Brazil commits to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 43%, in relation to 2005, by 2030. In this scenario and with the data available at that time, the country would emit, in 2030, about 1,208 gigatons of carbon dioxide equivalent (in general terms, a sum of the gases that cause global warming).
With the evolution of methodologies for measuring gases, the 2005 data were corrected and increased. The Brazilian target, however, was not aligned with this correction and remained at a 43% reduction. As the baseline data (2005) are smaller, the 43% reduction came to mean higher emissions in 2030 (about 1,620 gigatons), compared to what was initially promised. Thus, the climatic pedaling was born.
By further increasing the percentage of emission cuts, the situation could be corrected with the national target score submitted to the UNFCCC. But that didn’t happen. Considering the document that was submitted with a 50% reduction in emissions, Brazil in 2030 will be emitting 1,281 gigatons of COtwoand (read carbon dioxide equivalent), according to analyzes by the Climate Observatory and by the Policy Entirely.
The alert about pedaling maintenance had already been sounded when Leite announced the new goal, at COP26. The day before the pledge, Brazil had even submitted an addendum letter to the UNFCCC in which it only made official the goal of climate neutrality by 2050, without mentioning the goals for this decade.
Organizations point out that the new national targets do not increase climate ambition, something that was expected of nations that signed the Paris Agreement.
“The emission ceiling stipulated for 2030 is an entire Colombia (in terms of annual emissions) above that previously stipulated by the Government of Brazil”, says an analysis produced by Politics by Integer. The 2025 ceiling is an entire Poland above the previously stipulated, the document points out.
The Full Policy also points out that the country must definitively resolve the issue of updating goals. “The successive demonstrations of regression directly affect the credibility of the country in the international sphere”, says the analysis.
The Climate Observatory points out that the country is not complying with the Paris Agreement and that it lies in the document sent to the UNFCCC when stating that it is increasing its ambition.
“It remains a step backwards, at a time when the United Nations is calling for
countries to increase their ambitions. Brazil does not respond to the call and is still retreating,” says Marcio Astrini, executive secretary of the Climate Observatory, in a statement.
