There is good and bad news about climate change. On the one hand, if the countries of the world fully and timely fulfill all their commitments to reduce carbon emissions made at the Glasgow International Conference last year, then there is still a good chance that the temperature rise will not exceed the limit of two degrees Celsius by in 2100 (will increase by 1.9 to 2 points compared to pre-industrial levels).
But on the other hand, there is now only a 6% to 10% chance that the temperature rise will be kept below the most ambitious target of one and a half degrees Celsius, which was set by the Paris international agreement, because the necessary cuts are needed. pollutants by 2030 already seem elusive. This is the conclusion of a new international scientific study.
In Glasgow in the winter of 2021 (COP26) 153 countries presented new improved plans to reduce carbon emissions, with the aim of eliminating zero carbon emissions by 2050-2070 and thus the average global temperature by the end of the 21st century not to increase more than 2 degrees compared to the middle of the 19th century. Any further increase poses risks especially for the small island states and in general for many coastal areas in general.
“The new study is the first to say that there is indeed a 50% chance that temperatures will be kept below 2 degrees Celsius if the targets are met,” said Malte Meinhausen, lead researcher at the University of Melbourne. which he described as a “historic landmark”. “But it is not good news that our study clearly shows that increased action is needed this decade, if we want to have a chance of not exceeding 1.5 degrees,” he added.
The problem, according to a study by scientists from Australia, France, Germany and Austria, published in the journal Nature, is that, at least in the short term, carbon emissions show an upward rather than a downward trend. Carbon dioxide emissions are expected to increase by up to 13% by 2030, instead of falling by 45% as needed, according to scientists.
Christoph McGland, of the International Energy Agency, said: “This is the first time that governments have set specific targets that can actually keep global warming below the symbolic level of 2 degrees Celsius. This is clearly a cause for optimism. We have come a long way since the Paris Agreement in 2015. But now the real work must begin. Commitments have not yet been backed up by strong and credible short-term policies to make them a reality. “The real ‘key’ is the importance of reducing emissions by 2030.”
He estimated that, with the data so far, the temperature could rise by 2.4 to 2.6 degrees by 2100, while there is a 5% chance that the rise will exceed 2.8 degrees. “Policy makers are at a crossroads. We can choose to maintain carbon emissions and thus deepen the energy crisis. Or we can use this opportunity to take an honest step towards a cleaner and safer future. “
Among other things, as measures of rapid climate efficiency, he proposed the reduction of speed limits on the roads, the acceleration of the application of renewable energy sources and electric vehicles, the “braking” of the various methane emissions, etc.
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