It is already known that climate change intensify heat waves, droughts and affect population health. However, another aspect less explored, but still problematic, must also grow with the climate crisis: lightning!
Researchers from Inpe (National Institute for Space Research) point out that climate change should lead to an increase in electrical discharges that affect Brazil, which is already champion in this regard.
Considering a scenario in which nothing is done and greenhouse gas emissions remain as they are currently, Brazil could jump from 70 million lightning strikes per year to an average of 100 million. The data are contained in the book “Brazil: World Lightning Champion”, recently released by researchers from Inpe’s Elat (Atmospheric Electricity Group), which tells the evolution of lightning monitoring in the country.
At the request of the sheet, the scientists also developed estimates for different IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) emissions scenarios in the Brazilian regions.
In the intermediate scenario of the IPCC, for example, from 2081 to 2100, the North region can have an increase of up to 30% in the lightning record. Then come the Midwest (24%) and Southeast (18%).
Even in the best scenarios for controlling global warming — which studies show to be difficult to happen — increases in the North, Midwest and Southeast are still above or very close to 10%.
And what’s the problem with that?
First and foremost are deaths associated with lightning.
According to Osmar Pinto Jr., coordinator of Elat and one of the authors of the book, together with Elat researcher Iara Cardoso, it can be said that, with the increase in lightning, it is also possible that the situation of deaths will worsen.
Added to human losses, lightning strikes can also have an economic effect, with burning of machines, for example.
In addition to the leadership in electrical discharges, Brazil is in the top 10 of deaths in the world. A survey by Elat points out that, from 2000 to 2019, there were 2,194 deaths by lightning in the country. The state of São Paulo leads this ranking, with 327 deaths, most of them in the city of São Paulo. Manaus is second on the list of deaths.
The high number of lightning strikes in São Paulo can be explained by pollution. For a ray to be formed water particles (which form by condensation nuclei, which in turn are influenced by pollution) and ice particles (which form from water particles) are needed. In storm clouds, ice shocks generate electrical charges that, when they exceed the insulating capacity of the air, trigger a discharge—lightning, lightning, and thunder.
As for the case of Manaus and for the large number of discharges in the North, there are other points at stake.
“The forest has a very strong interaction with the atmosphere, it is responsible for the humidity that will give rise to storms [e consequentemente aos raios]”, says Pinto Jr.. “To tinker with the forest is to tinker with the amount of lightning in the future.”
And that’s where another issue comes in that has everything to do with the climate crisis: deforestation, the biggest source of greenhouse gas emissions in Brazil.
Brazil has been showing high data on deforestation in the Amazon, compared to the history of the last decade. In recent months, the forest has lost areas of more than 10,000 square kilometers.
The researcher claims that, in the Amazon, electrical discharges cause the death of thousands of trees a year, but because of the high humidity, the lightning strikes the vegetation and does not cause fires.
“The rays and the trees are in balance”, says Pinto Jr.. “If the rays increase, it can increase the number of dead trees and generate an imbalance in the structure.”
how to protect yourself
According to the Inpe researcher, the main way to avoid lightning tragedies is based on information.
In storms, for example, it is recommended to avoid using equipment that is connected to the electrical network and also not to be near outlets indoors.
Another indication is not to use a wired phone or a cell phone that is connected to the charger. Bathing in electric showers, proximity to metal windows and doors, and with taps and pipes should also be avoided. Even buildings with lightning rods are not fully protected.
During storms, it is worth looking for shelter and not staying in open areas or near bodies of water.
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