By Antonis Anzoletos
The most pessimistic see the clock going back exactly two years. When in Evros, Tayyip Erdogan escalated it instrumentalization of the refugeethe Overflights were a daily occurrence, anti-navtex were issued according to the established Turkish tactics in Greek exercises and of course in his rhetoric the threats of drilling it was almost everyday. EU sanctions had preceded for the interventions in the Cypriot EEZ, but without sweating the ear of the Turkish president. In August 2020, the State Department, in a stricter tone than on Wednesday, had immediately called on Turkey to cancel its drilling.
These are all “bells” that warn the Greek side that a warm summer like that of 2020 is coming; Two years ago, in August, as a result of the presence of the illegal research vessel Oruts Reyes on the Greek continental shelf, more and more military forces began to gather in the Eastern Mediterranean. On the one hand, the Turkish frigates that accompanied the research mission. On the other hand, the Greek ships that were watching it.
The environment, however, is not the same. In the equation of the Aegean and the Eastern Mediterranean there is the war in Ukraine which does not allow an extreme delinquent behavior by neighbors. Legality is what is required and Anything referring to Vladimir Putin’s expansionist behavior is isolated from the international community. In the case of Turkey, the big question is not to pull the strings, threatening the Cohesion of the Alliance. Tayyip Erdogan is waging a struggle for political survival within himself and is once again acrobatic in his relations with the allies. This can be seen from the attempt to play, without much success, the role of mediator between Russia and Ukraine. Analysts claim that it will not reach the levels of the Greek alarm in the red, given that its armed forces are not in the best possible condition due to lack of spare parts.
New bazaar
What is the specialty of Tayyip Erdogan? the oriental bazaar. Greece experienced it intensely both in Evros and in the difficult periods of immigration when the “cannula” of flows increased every time the Turkish president he wanted to set his own terms in Europe. In the case of its accession Finland and Sweden in NATO targeting seems to be twofold. Following the non-imposition of sanctions, he continues to turn a blind eye to Russia, confirming his commitment. At the same time, it is trying to lift the embargo on weapons systems, but also to reach an agreement with the USA on F-16s and F-35s. Ankara is also looking to Syria, as the Kurds are still its target, while after 15 years, Turkey has set foot in Israel with Mevlüt ÇavuÅŸoλουlu.
NATO expansion
The accession of a new member to the North Atlantic Alliance requires unanimity from all Member States. Is a phone call from Joe Biden and an invitation to the White House that Tayyip Erdogan has been waiting for so long to unlock the developments enough? It would be a good step, but everything shows that the Turkish president wants something much more tangible. The elections, after all, are near and he wants to achieve a diplomatic victory that will give him several polling points.
We will have developments from the moment that NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg send an invitation to Sweden and Finland to start accession talks with the North Atlantic Alliance. The Accession Action Plan will then be drafted. The NATO Summit will take place in late June in Madrid and it is not ruled out that developments will run on the basis of this top appointment. The parliaments of the 30 Member States will be asked to ratify the entry of the new members, but this is a formal procedure. It was not, however, only the Russian invasion of Ukraine that led the two countries to apply for membership in the Alliance. Since 2014 they belonged to the countries that have an upgraded relationship with NATO so the accession would gradually come. It just accelerated with the new developments. Senior officials from Sweden and Finland met in Ankara on Wednesday with their Turkish counterparts in a bid to curb her opposition to joining the North Atlantic Alliance.
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