The “bargain” Erdogan: How can he be saved from an electoral defeat?

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Hyperinflation in Turkey is suffocating the country’s economy and Tayyip Erdogan is looking for ways out.

By Antonis Anzoletou

What could save him Tayyip Erdogan from an electoral defeat, which according to all indications is just around the corner? The floating drilling rig “Abdul Hamid Khan” to find a deposit in the area that has started exploration. And despite the big words and high tones against Greece – which he used at the fiesta when the investigative report was released – analysts argue that this time the Turkish president he is really looking for something. And that’s why he moves to his own limits. It will be the best narrative on the way to the polls a promise to his suffering people that the “antidote” to the exorbitant increases in natural gas lies beneath the Turkish seabed. Such a development could not be ruled out leading him to early appeal to the polls, that is, before the summer of 2023.

THE hyperinflation in Turkey is suffocating the country’s economy and Tayyip Erdogan is looking for ways out. He insists on talking to her gulf countries without, however, having any results so far. With the Israel everything shows that the relations between the two countries have come out of the “ice” they have been in for many years. The impending relocation of ambassadors to the two capitals testifies that in recent months Ankara’s efforts to re-approach have been intense. To the exclusion of Ankara from the European plans for the transfer of LNG, Turkey is reportedly attempting to respond by strengthening its ties with China.

What else can give points to his profile? A success on the Syrian front. Military operations in Kurdish areas have intensified and he claims to be in coordination with Russia. Reconciliation with Damascus is a major issue for Erdogan at a time when his opposition is highly critical of the 4 million Syrians living in Turkey. He is looking to find a way to impose a safe zone in northern Syria. Regarding refugees in relation to Greece, the recent events in Evros show that it will not stop instrumentalizing this issue, as it did intensively in the past on the islands. The islets provide an answer to the fence that has been erected on the northern border. People are taken there by the Turkish gendarmerie. The object, as the recorded events show, is to be stranded there when the river is swollen.

His role mediator in the Russia-Ukraine war has attempted to appropriate him since the first moment of Moscow’s invasion of Kyiv. Whether he will be able to continue to “walk in both boats” for a long time is another question that no one can answer at the moment.

The “bargain” does not lack the agreements of the delegation of the Turkish Ministry of Defense for the supply of F-16s, as well as the possibility of a new S-400 supply from Russia. He continues to play a double board in this field as well, seeing what he can gain given that Erdogan’s relations with the West are not his strong point at the moment.

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