The pre-election period and the scenarios of the ballot box

By Antonis Anzoletou

The political system is entering the last turn before the elections and the motion of no confidence against the government submitted by SYRIZA to the Parliament is an “act” of the culmination of the opposition tactics practiced by the main opposition party.

He wishes to show that the case of surveillance is a major issue and as soon as there is official evidence from the Anti-Corruption Commission, the political developments should proceed.

The government is fighting a battle of resilience until the elections, whenever they are held, and so far it seems to be winning.

This was reflected in the latest Pulse poll conducted on behalf of SKAI, which shows New Democracy maintaining the gap with SYRIZA at 7.5 points, losing 0.5% compared to the December measurement.

The majority see that the polls show that no matter what SYRIZA does, the climate in society does not change and the policies implemented in the last 3.5 years have been approved.

Movements are now cautious, as the indecisive may tip the scale.

The smaller “players” play their last card.

PASOK has always emphasized that the pressure they received due to the case of Eva Kaili and Qatargate will weaken with Harilaou Trikoupi “stinging” half a unit, according to the Pulse poll and reaching 11%.

It is certain that in Koumoundourou they have estimated that through the move to file a motion of no confidence they will cause a rallying of the progressive forces against the majority.

The centrist space is of great interest to Alexis Tsipras, which according to Pulse is still dominated by Kyriakos Mitsotakis who best expresses it.

This is how 29% of respondents answered.

The former prime minister received a positive vote from 22% of respondents and Nikos Androulakis from 16%.

The parties study the polls very carefully even if they dispute them. The interesting thing about the Pulse survey for January is that the sample of 1,205 adults with the right to vote showed that the resulting Parliament is five-party.

It is recalled that the increase in the percentage of parties that will be left out of Parliament reduces the limit of independence for the first party.

The election scenarios prepared by Pulse and presented by the general manager of the company, Giorgos Arapoglou, to SKAI are indicative of the difficulty of forming a government from the first Sunday.

With a proportional distribution of undecideds based on the voting intention resulting from the January survey (ND: 33.5%, SYRIZA: 26%, PASOK 11%, KKE 6%, HELLENIC SOLUTION 4%) the five-party Parliament and the percentage of parties that will not exceed 3% to be at 11.5 points, the seats are distributed as follows: ND – 37%: 125 seats, SYRIZA – 28.5%: 97 seats, PASOK – 12%: 41 seats, KKE – 6 .5%: 22 seats, GREEK SOLUTION – 4.5%: 15 seats.

It is clear that all forces except the first are amplified, unlike what happens with the amplified analog.

With this scenario, the blue faction sets a “bow” for self-reliance in the second round without seeking any cooperation, while SYRIZA and PASOK together cannot form a government.

In another scenario with a non-party Parliament and non-parliamentary parties reaching 8.5% it results: ND – 37%: 121 seats, SYRIZA – 28.5%: 94 seats, PASOK – 12%: 39 seats, KKE – 6 .5%: 21 seats, GREEK SOLUTION – 4.5%: 15 seats, MERA25 – 3%: 10%. It is interesting in this case that if they reach a programmatic agreement SYRIZA-PASOK-MERA25 gather 143 seats.

Overall the percentages of the first party to achieve self-sufficiency in relation to the percentage of forces that will not enter the Parliament are as follows according to Pulse:

Outside Parliament Simple Analog Enhanced Analog

6% 47.2% 38.5%

7% 46.7% 38.3%

8% 46.2% 38%

9% 45.7% 37.7%

10% 45.2% 37.5%

11% 44.7% 37.1%

12% 44.2% 36.8%

13% 43.7% 36.5%

14% 43.2% 36.2%

15% 42.7% 36%

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