By Antonis Anzoletou

The imprint of the railway tragedy is fresh and a significant amount of time is required for the pain and sadness covering Greek society to subside. This is what happened after the deadly fire in Mati in 2018. The fear of a major tragedy turning into a crisis of democracy is always there, but it is not the most likely scenario. In any case, the political environment in which the parties will be led to the elections will never be the same. The parliamentary forces have so far respected, with very few individual exceptions, the pain of the families who lost their people. The government started giving answers with the press conference of Giorgos Gerapetritis and the opposition is taking a wait-and-see attitude with cautious criticism. Everyone is regrouping their forces and studying the new data. The protests set a new tone by reminding us that the questions to be answered about the unspeakable tragedy of Tempe are unrelenting.

The polls are likely to be held almost a month later, on May 21, and this gives the parties some more time. However, since the prime minister has not said his last word, nothing can be taken for granted. If the pre-election period really becomes even longer, then the tragic accident, the narratives, the central slogans, as well as the goals of the parties will be different. There are three main questions: Will abstinence grow at the time of the popular verdict? How will the anti-systemic vote move? Will there be even to a lesser extent a repeat of the scene of May 2012 when citizens abandoned the major parties? Almost 11 years ago in the Parliament, with the economic crisis having tired the society, seven formations had entered and another three (Ecological Greens, LAOS, Democratic Alliance) moved from 2.5% – 2.9%.

Abstention and vote fragmentation is a phenomenon that accompanies periods of crisis. Political forces will focus in the next period on preventing this risk. For her New Democracy the return to the path of self-reliance in the second ballots is the first goal. Several blue executives had assumed that the comfortable dominance in the simple analog would be the “door” that would open and “unlock” the second four-year term for Kyriakos Mitsotakis.

SYRIZA did not show that it has the ability to threaten the primacy of New Democracy and it seems that it was hoping for a last minute rally in order to get as close as it could. Now executives of Koumoundourou estimate that Maximou cannot hide the inadequacy of the “staff state” that it has been advertising for the last four years. The tragedy of Tempe changed the facts for the PASOK who can hope that those moderate centrist voters who jump to the pitta of the undecided will turn to Harilaou Trikoupi. The protest vote is very likely to strengthen both the KKE and the Hellenic Solution and MeRA25.