By Antonis Anzoletou

The party staffs are “dusting off” the polls after the tragic accident in Tempe, trying to draw the first conclusions. In the government camp, they consider the “numbness” of citizens after the railway tragedy to be normal. They would have been much more alarmed if the decay presented by the New Democracy had been accompanied by from the rise of SYRIZA or PASOK.

The rule in politics is that once a voter decides to defect to another camp, it is almost impossible to repatriate him. They do not see a change in the political scene in Herodos Atticus and believe that society is still confused by the tragedy in Tempi. In Koumoundourou, after some time of questioning the measurements, they now started to invoke them. The numbers are better and they consider it important that they are not affected by the anti-systemic vote, in contrast to New Democracy and PASOK. The official opposition maintains that negative feelings prevail in the world in relation to the general situation of the country. They also argue that they have a larger “reservoir” among undecided voters, meaning they “receive” more from New Democracy on the way to the elections.

Two months before the polls, the parties have taken to the computers to see if “the beans come out”. It is not only the percentage that each formation will take that concerns the staffs. The sum of the parties that do not participate in the allocation of seats also plays a major role in shaping the balance. After the Tempe the first image that was given is that the dispersion of the vote, due to protest, but also the passage into the gray zone is quite large. In the Pulse poll, conducted on behalf of SKAI last week, the “non-parliament” parties reach 20.5%. The number is very large and is not expected to remain at these levels until the election. Either some voters will “return” or choose some of the existing parliamentary parties. For the “HELLINES” party, although it is reflected in a percentage of 3%, which gives it the ticket for the Parliament, the decision of the Supreme Court on its exclusion is pending.

The arithmetic of the simple proportional based on the intention to vote with a reduction on the valid ones gives the New Democracy, with the 30% it receives, 113 seats. SYRIZA (26%) 98 seats, PASOK (10%) 38 seats, KKE (6%) 23 seats, HELLENIC SOLUTION (4%) 15 seats and MERA25 (3.5%) 13 seats.

Can any cooperative government emerge with these associations? THE SW with PASOK they reach a marginal majority of 151 MPs. From the blue faction, however, they have declared that their primary goal remains self-reliance. Regarding the scenario of the “government of the losers” which Kyriakos Mitsotakis has mentioned for the first time in his interview with TIF in September and which Alexis Tsipras has denied, SYRIZA, PASOK and MERA25, adding their forces reach 149 seats. Such a combination of forces leads directly to the second ballots. There is no reason for the blue faction not to seek a clearly increased number of deputies that gives it anyway the system of enhanced proportionality with which the next elections will be held. The danger of non-government, after all, will be one of the arguments of Kyriakos Mitsotakis in order to increase his mobilization on the second Sunday of the elections.