“The EU-Turkey Refugee Agreement has been in force since 2016. The deal was then considered key to solving the refugee crisis in Europe. However, Tayyip Erdoğan has used it several times as a means of political pressure,” notes Bild under the title: “Collapse of the Refugee Agreement if Erdoğan loses?”

The German newspaper notes on its website: “On May 14, elections are held in Turkey. At the moment, the leader of the Turkish opposition, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, is leading the polls, with President Erdogan, as everything shows, in poor physical condition. If the AKP leader is defeated in the elections after 20 years in power, the refugee deal could collapse.

Turkey expert Eren Givercin considers a collapse of the Refugee Agreement possible: “The deal is an integral part of the election campaign. The opposition claims that Syrian refugees must return to their homeland. So it is possible that many refugees will think: “No, I don’t want to go back to Syria and they try to come to Europe”. Erdogan’s main opponent Kemal Kilicdaroglu “seeks to renegotiate the Agreement, because there is a lot of dissatisfaction due to the refugee burden that the population has shouldered”, the expert underlines.

Historian Rasim March predicts that after the Turkish elections the deal “will definitely be reviewed!” The Turkish-German expert explains: “There will definitely be a large concentration of refugees and migrants at the Greek border. If the Turkish refugee policy changes, the refugees will seek to reach Europe as soon as possible.” This means that “traffickers’ routes will come back to the fore and that irregular border crossings will increase, as well as illegal immigration into the EU,” concludes Rashim March.

Turkish attempts to influence politicians in Germany

“According to the Agency for the Protection of the Constitution, in the run-up to the Turkish elections on May 14, Ankara’s attempts to influence politicians in Germany have increased,” writes Der Spiegel magazine under the title “Apparent systematic efforts.” The German magazine points out: “Representatives of the Turkish government are said to have targeted politicians in North Rhine-Westphalia in order to influence discussions and decisions in Turkey’s favor, both at the local and federal level.

Officials from the consulates general in Cologne, Dusseldorf, Essen and Münster are said to have approached politicians, most of whom have Turkish roots. The contacts recorded so far by the Office for the Protection of the Constitution in North Rhine-Westphalia exceed ten. “It is clear that these are systematic efforts,” says the head of the Service in North Rhine-Westphalia Jürgen Kaiser. In contacts with politicians, consulate officials address both origin and national sentiment, adds the German official.

The aim of the approach is for politicians to appear friendly to Turkey and act in Ankara’s interest when, for example, it comes to the conflict in Armenia, commemorations, school lessons or controversial arrests in Turkey. Recently the Turkish consulate general in Dusseldorf tried to influence a request in the parliament of North Rhine-Westphalia regarding the provision of aid to the earthquake victims in Turkey. Targeted members of local parliament are said to have been approached during the parliamentary process.

“When individual MPs are approached in a clearly unofficial way, then we take for granted an illegal, undemocratic exercise of influence,” explains Jürgen Kaiser: “MPs must decide freely and not according to the will of Ankara.” According to the head of the North Rhine-Westphalia Constitution Protection Service, his service is holding awareness talks with politicians to inform them about Turkey’s actions.

Stefanos Georgakopoulos