By Savvas Michalaros

The country enters a new pre-election period from Monday, with New Democracy to be the absolute favorite ahead of the elections to be held on June 25. The difference of 20 points from the second SYRIZA does not leave much room for… misunderstandings, however the polls ahead of June 25th are empty and no one can prejudge the result.

The big question mark now is the goals and narrative that each party will adopt, namely New Democracy, SYRIZA and PASOK.

Kyriakos Mitsotakis raised the dilemma of the elections for him and the ND. The goal is one: Self-reliance. By simple proportionality, New Democracy gathered almost 41% and 146 MPs. One would say that with the enhanced proportionality and the bonus of deputies of the first party – which is assumed to be the ND -, the case of self-reliance will be… a walk for the “blues”. And yet, the president of the New Democracy is anything but considering that he will take a “walk”. On the one hand, this is a new electoral process, on the other hand, the percentage that will be required for an independent government will depend on the number of parties that will secure their entry into Parliament, and on the other hand, no one and nothing guarantees that New Democracy will gather again the same high rates.

In the May 21 elections, five parties gathered more than 3% and entered the Parliament. Another three, however (Niki, Pleussi Eleftherias and MeRA25) were left out for only a few votes.

The message of Kyriakos Mitsotakis to the MPs and executives of New Democracy was no accident. As the ND president pointed out, everyone will be evaluated by their pre-election activity, adding that no one should relax.

As for the tactics, the narrative, the New Democracy will rely on the… tested recipe of the elections that it won by a wide margin: 1) On the message of stability and 2) On the necessity of self-reliance.

In Piraeus they have realized that the world, after so many years of pressure and changes, needs stability. The response to the May 21 election narrative was so great that it exceeded even the most optimistic predictions and expectations. Therefore, New Democracy will not abandon the message of stability it sends out and this will be done again, with many speeches, with an analysis of positions, with a presentation of the program, especially for the economy and the everyday life of the citizens, both by Kyriakos himself Mitsotakis, as well as the rest of the party executives.

A new reality in SYRIZA – Storm and cloudy waters

In SYRIZA, on the other hand, the situation is completely different. Koumundourou’s party lost 11 points compared to 2019, which shocked Alexis Tsipras and his associates, reaching the point where there has even been talk of replacing Mr. Tsipras from the presidency. What happens next will largely be determined by the outcome of the June 25 election. For the time being, one thing is certain: SYRIZA will go with Alexis Tsipras in the new elections.

Therefore and given the failure of the narrative presented by SYRIZA for May 21st, Koumoundourou is looking for a new narrative. From the first statements that have been made, both by Alexis Tsipras and by other members of the party, SYRIZA will seek to convince the world that Kyriakos Mitsotakis should not be all-powerful. And that a strong opposition is needed against him.

This means that the goal of first place is no longer a realistic basis for the election campaign. The only aim, after the new situation that has been formed, is to reduce the “scissors”, to reduce the difference from the New Democracy, so that the narrative of “recovery” and “parenthesis” can be presented. In this way, the questioning of the face of Alexis Tsipras will be avoided the next day and preparations will begin for a tough opposition, with the aim of the elections of… 2027. Already the SYRIZA executives are strongly promoting the age of Alexis Tsipras, only 49 years old, which can mean a lot for the next day in Koumoundourou.

PASOK sees an opportunity to come back

PASOK, for its part, achieved the goal set by Nikos Androulakis. To reach close to 12%. The “green” executives “sold” from the first hours the narrative of the “return” and “recovery of forces”, saying that the percentage of the party increased by almost 50% and that this gives a dynamic for the future.

The goal of Harilaou Trikoupis is one. To cover the difference from SYRIZA and become the first force of the opposition. Is such a thing possible and realistic? The… unreal losses of SYRIZA leave all possibilities open and fill PASOK with hope for a major turnaround.

But there is also a different “reading” of the results of the May 21 polls. Analysts say that the 11 points lost by SYRIZA did not go to PASOK, which gained only 3.5 points. The remaining eight were divided among other parties, which highlights another aspect: That the voters who leave SYRIZA, do not choose PASOK, as they do not trust it.

At the same time, PASOK appears with the same narrative. He rules out a government of cooperation – if necessary after June 25 – with Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis and insists on the rhetoric of a “white record”, i.e. the fact that Nikos Androulakis has not governed, so he has not been consistent with his promises.

In any case, the June 25 elections start with empty ballot boxes. The pre-election period will be completely different, on a different basis, with different dilemmas and narratives.