Populist and Eurosceptic right-wing factions could see a dramatic rise in power in June’s elections to the new European Parliament, according to a study of all 27 EU member states released today.

According to this study, by the ECFR (European Council on Foreign Relations) think tank, “populist, ‘anti-European’ right-wing parties will take first place in at least nine EU member states,” including France, Austria, Belgium , Italy and the Netherlands.

They are expected to understand “second or third place in nine other countries’including Germany, Spain and Sweden.

The consequences of these elections, which will be held from 6 to 9 June, may be particularly wide-ranging, leading “to hindering the progress of the necessary European legislation to implement the next European Green Deal”, as well as “to much harder line on immigration, enlargement, support for Ukraine,” warn study authors Simon Hicks and Kevin Cunningham.

“There is a strong possibility that pro-Russian parties will be represented in the next (European) Parliament,” the text added, in which, for example, Bulgaria’s pro-Russian Renaissance party may enter the body for the first time, taking three seats.

The study is based mainly on recent opinion polls conducted in the 27 EU member states and the results of the most recent national parliamentary elections.

It predicts that the strongest political group in the European Parliament, the European People’s Party (EPP, Christian Democrats, right), which includes current European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, will remain the largest.

But it is heading to lose seats, as is the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D), the second largest force in the semi-circle.

The centrist Renew Europe faction — the former alliance of Liberals and Democrats, which notably includes French President Emmanuel Macron’s Renaissance — is expected to suffer losses, as are the Greens.

“Rising Populism”

On the other hand, the far-right group Identity and Democracy (TD), which includes in particular parties such as the National Rally (RN) in France and the Alternative for Germany (AfD), as well as the European Conservatives and Reformists (ESM, Eurosceptics) , which include the Law and Justice party (PiS) in Poland, the Brothers of Italy (FdI) or Vox in Spain it is estimated that they will gain ground.

According to the study’s predictions, TD is heading to become the third political force in the European Parliament, with 98 seats. It could overtake the ESM, especially if the Hungarian MEPs of Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party — currently not affiliated with any group — decide to join it, the authors say, noting that on the other hand, the EPP could recruit the FdI.

According to the text, a “coalition that would include the populist right”, consisting of the EPP, the TD and the ESM, could well be established and would hold 49% of the 720 seats in the next European Parliament.

“Against the backdrop of rising populism, which could reach new heights with the (possible) return of Donald Trump to the US presidency this year, mainstream political parties must wake up, clearly assess the demands of voters, recognizing the need for a more invasive and more powerful Europe on the world stage,” says British political scientist Simon Hicks.