Both the latest polls in North Macedonia and the results of the first round of presidential elections held on April 24 suggest that political change is imminent, with the nationalist party VMRO-DPMNE securing first place in voter preferences.

In the first round of the presidential election, the opposition candidate Gordana Silianovska-Davkova, a professor emeritus of the Faculty of Law and aged 70, managed to secure twice the number of votes of the current incumbent and candidate of the Social Democrats (SDSM) Stevo Pendarovski.

Many voters were visibly unhappy with the stagnation of the country’s European path, weak economy and rampant corruption and decided to trust the opposition.

“I think a change of government is very likelyDaniel Braun, director of the political foundation Konrad Adenauer (affiliated to the German Christian Democrats) in Skopje, tells DLF radio station. In my opinion “this is mainly due to the government’s poor record in many areas. Corruption and state dysfunction are evident».

Promises not kept

The Social Democrats took power in 2017 with promises to join NATO, start negotiations for full EU membership and crack down on corruption. Of these three key announcements, only one has been fulfilled: In 2020, North Macedonia joined NATO after compromising with Greece on the country’s official name.

But this difficult compromise with the southern neighbor, which provoked angry reactions from nationalists in North Macedonia, was not enough to open the door to the EU.

In November 2020, Bulgaria vetoed the start of accession negotiations, demanding from North Macedonia a series of concessions that for many of the country’s inhabitants are incompatible with their national identity.

Following an intervention by France in June 2022, the dispute has been partially resolved, with Bulgarian demands being incorporated into the “negotiating framework” between Skopje and the EU.

Now North Macedonia is called upon to fulfill one more condition for the start of negotiations, recognizing in its Constitution the Bulgarian minority numbering 3,000 people.

So far, however, the necessary two-thirds parliamentary majority has not been gathered in order to revise the country’s Constitution.

The nationalist opposition VMRO-DPMNE declares its opposition to the new compromise.

The economy is a major issue

The opposition is also aided by the government’s inability to fight corruption, economic stagnation and high inflation, which is attributed to the coronavirus pandemic and Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine.

According to the World Bank, in 2024, North Macedonia will be the country with the lowest growth rate in the Western Balkans for the second consecutive year, but also with the highest deficit in the state budget. For 2022 and 2023 the inflation rate was one of the highest in Europe.

Opposition leader Hristjan Mykoski promises voters that he will “give them back their Macedonia”.

Both he and presidential candidate Gordana Silianovska-Davkova refuse to use the offensive designation “North” in the country’s name and vow to continue doing so if they win the election. Such a development could reignite the conflict with Greece, which has repeatedly reacted when government officials do not comply with the compromise reached in 2018.

Regarding the compromise with Bulgaria on the issue of the minority, Mykoski does not say much during the election campaign. He points out that the issue should be “analysed” after the formation of the new government.

And while the election campaign is not dominated by relations with Greece or Bulgaria, Mykoski’s decision to go head-to-head with the country’s largest Albanian party, the DUI, is reviving fears of new ethnic divisions.

This particular party represents over 25% of the total population of North Macedonia. After the Social Democrats took power in 2017, many Albanians had risen to high positions, including the prime minister. Nationalist circles are protesting and talking about “Albanization of the state”.

The European “paper”

Despite the painful defeat in the first round of the presidential elections, the ruling Social Democrats remain true to their pre-election slogan: “We are not giving up on our European future».

However, polls show their message is failing to resonate with voters tired of constant compromises with neighboring countries in the name of uncertain EU membership.

As political analyst Aleksandar Krzalowski tells DW, in this election campaign “the government has only bet on one paper, ignoring all the other important issues and especially the fight against corruption, which the citizens consider a major issue.” The former prime minister and leader of the Social Democrats, Dimitar Kovacevsky, speaking at pre-election rallies, has apologized for the mistakes of recent years. At the same time, however, he sends the message to the voters that these elections will decide “whether we will move forward in the EU, whether we will become a progressive society or whether we will return to the past of isolation and ethnic conflicts».

Edited by: Yiannis Papadimitriou