The EU recently approved the reform of the asylum system. However, some states seem unwilling to implement the new framework. What’s next? Last month, the European Parliament in a landmark decision approved the new framework for tightening the asylum system, after a decade of political wrangling. However, there were also many who criticized the new framework, both from the left and the right of the political spectrum.

NGOs and left-leaning MPs argue that the new regulations will undermine the right to asylum, and that no aspect of the framework will prevent migrants from attempting the perilous journey to the EU via the Mediterranean. The extreme right on the other hand claims that the reforms are not strict enough and therefore will not be able to achieve the purpose for which they were really designed, namely to reduce migration flows to the Union.

Immediate reactions from Warsaw and Budapest

The reaction of Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk was correspondingly negative, as well as immediate, who stated that he would not implement the part of the agreement that requires member states to participate in the relocation of refugees to other regions of the EU, with the ultimate goal their fairest distribution. “I want to make it clear that Poland is not going to accept illegal immigrants under any mechanism,” Tusk wrote to X.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s position on X was equally negative: “The migration agreement is another nail in the European Union’s coffin. Unity is dead and there is no more border security. Hungary is never going to succumb to the madness of mass immigration.”

“Just the Beginning”

In any case, as Nicole De Moor, the Minister of Immigration of Belgium, pointed out, the road is still long – the conclusion of the agreement was “only the beginning”.

The new regulatory framework, originally proposed by the European Commission in September 2020, is due to enter into force by 2026. During this two-year period, member states will have to incorporate the new framework into their national laws.

This is where the biggest stakes of the issue lie, as Camille Le Coze from the European Migration Policy Institute points out to DW: “The key question is this: Will we be able to ensure that […] Will this complex system, which is supposed to be implemented within the next two years, really change the current management of migration flows?’

Many reforms are needed

However, even the member states that are willing to fully implement the new reforms have a lot of work to do. Under the new framework asylum seekers will have to go through a thorough check within seven days of their arrival in the EU. Their details will be entered into the European Eurodac database, which will be constantly expanded with new biometric data. Within the same week, the immigrant will be classified in one of two different processes for the processing of his application.

With the new, faster process, migrants from countries with a recognition rate of less than 20%, such as India, Pakistan or Morocco, will be able to be held at the border for up to 12 weeks, in detention centers that will exist in Greece, Italy , Malta, Spain, Croatia and Cyprus. When a migrant’s asylum application is rejected, they will be deported directly from the EU’s external borders either to their country of origin or possibly to a third country considered safe by the EU.

The likely vast majority of asylum seekers will go through the normal process, which is expected to be speeded up, while children will receive special treatment – ​​states will be required to ensure through independent oversight mechanisms that children’s rights are protected.

The difficult task of the southern states

The states on the EU’s southern borders, which will mainly implement the fastest system and where the detention centers will also be located, have a difficult task.

Home Affairs Commissioner Ylva Johansson says the new system of faster processing of asylum applications, which can accommodate 30,000 people across the EU at any one time and a total of 120,000 a year, will help decongest refugee detention centres, resulting in accidents like the fire in Moria, Lesvos in September 2020 are avoided.

However, the Left in the European Parliament, which voted against the agreement, believes that the new framework will worsen the current situation, “leading to mass detentions on the Greek islands, the Canary Islands or Lampedusa in Italy”.

How realistic is fair distribution?

The most controversial part of the migration pact concerns the mechanism that obliges EU states to accept refugees who have been granted asylum in another member state, with the aim of a fairer distribution of arrivals. Under EU law, asylum applications are supposed to take place in the host state – in a system that is rather unfair to southern border states such as Italy and Greece.

Any member state that refuses to host the refugees assigned to it will either have to pay a sum of money, which may even amount to 600 million euros per year, or offer logistical support. But will countries like Poland and Hungary follow the said checks?

Davide Colombi from the Center for European Policy Studies comments to DW that, while no one expects Hungary to take in any refugees, Tusk’s comments are rather ambiguous, as the Polish prime minister “said that Poland will not take in irregular migrants . Asylum seekers and refugees are not ‘illegal’ immigrants, however, because they apply for asylum.” Colombi’s assessment is therefore that either Tusk has deliberately positioned himself in a vague manner, or again he is consciously confusing recognized refugees and migrants.

Controversies over immigration will not stop

According to Colombi, the mechanism will of course give the member states the possibility to “find a way to avoid their responsibilities”. It is therefore up to the Commission and the EU’s rights protection mechanisms to make sure that the pact is properly implemented – although the Union’s executive has been reluctant to pressure states in the past.

Furthermore, the Commission has concluded agreements with third countries to limit migration flows, although there are strong concerns about violations of the fundamental rights of migrants, Colombi adds, referring to the controversial agreements with Libya and Tunisia.

The new pact may have put an end to multi-year, exhausting negotiations, but as the Right is expected to gain strength in the next European elections (6-9 June), most observers in Brussels estimate that immigration will remain a burning issue in the years to come.

Edited by: Giorgos Passas