London, by Thanasis Gavou

An article on the situation in Cyprus on the occasion of the completion of 50 years since the Turkish invasion and the beginning of the occupation is hosted by the Economist, entitled “The division of Cyprus seems to be indefinite”.

The British magazine comments in the subtitle that “the Greeks and Turks of the island seem content, for the time being, to stay away from each other”.

As stated, 50 years after the resolution of this division “remains far away, unless of course one considers the status quo some kind of solution”.

The history of the island after independence from the British is summarized: conflicts between the two communities, an outbreak of violence in Nicosia in 1963, a UN peacekeeping mission, a coup, the introduction of Turkey and the establishment of the “TRNC” recognized only by Turkey.

It also mentions the failed attempts to reunify into a bi-zonal, bi-communal federation in 2004 and 2017, with the note that the island is now “experiencing the longest ever period without serious negotiations”.

The Economist’s conclusion is that “the political and economic dynamics suggest that the existing division could continue indefinitely.”

Citing statements and past reports by academics, the journal speaks of a “conflict of convenience”, comparing it to the Palestinian-Israeli or Armenian-Azeri conflict being “almost literally a walk in the park”, with the ability to easily move from one to the other. other side of the divide.

It says that extremist violence has almost disappeared, that younger generations are “psychologically distant” from the war and dispossession of the 1970s, and that freedom of movement and access to Europe has reduced pressure on both sides for reunification.

It is commented that “for many Greek Cypriots, the union entails only a disadvantage – they would have to share power with the Turkish Cypriots and indirectly with Turkey itself”, which could cause economic unrest due to the large difference in incomes between the two communities.

Doubt is also expressed as to whether the Turkish Cypriots would vote for reunification again based on the current political dynamics and the fact that the majority of the population in the occupied territories is probably now made up of settlers.

As reported, “Turkey under its President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has increased its influence in Turkish Cypriot affairs, both politically and as an economic lifeline.”

It is also noted that in the end the hopes of promoting a solution due to hydrocarbons were not successful, while it is commented that the majority of Turkish Cypriots are more interested in a two-state solution than in some form of federation.

The Turkish Cypriot political scientist closes the article with the statement that “the quorum regime has become very sustainable in Cyprus” and that “the longer the division continues, the more solid it becomes.”