Most Lebanese do not want war with Israel. But Hezbollah operates as a state within a state, dragging the country into a devastating war. For Israel the die was cast.

The expanded security cabinet has already authorized Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallad to decide for themselves “how and when” to strike Lebanon after the deadly rocket attack on the occupied Golan Heights , for which Israel blames the pro-Iranian organization Hezbollah, which operates in southern Lebanon

Hezbollah itself maintains that it has nothing to do with the attack. Israel insists that it wants to hit this specific organization, without causing a general escalation in the Middle East. “We don’t want a total war, we don’t like that kind of thing” Israeli officials told Reuters.

“Almost war situation”

Speaking to Deutsche Welle, Michael Bauer, director of the Konrad Adenauer Political Foundation in Beirut, says that “indeed, in southern Lebanon and on the border with Israel there is almost a state of war. Elsewhere there are attacks by the Israeli army against Hezbollah positions. Of course, what the Lebanese fear is that we are entering a new phase of confrontations with an escalation in terms of the choice of targets, but also the weapons used.”

At this stage it is difficult to make any predictions, but many Lebanese are already seeking refuge where they can. A young woman, who wishes to remain anonymous, tells Deutsche Welle that she has temporarily moved into a relative’s house, as the Tahiye neighborhood in Beirut, where she lives, is controlled by Hezbollah and could be a target for Israeli forces. “For the second night I decided to sleep in a house owned by a cousin, just outside the city, there is somewhat more security here” says the young woman. “Of course it doesn’t seem very likely that they will bomb Beirut, but I’d rather be here than at home alone when the rest of my family is not in Lebanon.”

On the verge of collapse

If the conflict escalates, it will be another major blow to a country that is already in complete anarchy, but also on the verge of economic collapse. Lebanon’s public debt reaches 180% of GDP and inflation remains in the high double digits, although it has fallen significantly in 2024 (from 221% to 83%). According to the World Bank, at least 4 out of 10 Lebanese now live below the poverty line.

“Since 2019, Lebanon is facing a serious economic crisis” says Michael Bauer. “Until today, no measures have been taken, nor is there any management of the crisis. Political power is paralyzed. The office of president remains vacant, as do many other top offices. Surely this country is not in a position to face another crisis or a war with Israel. And it is important to make it clear that most Lebanese do not want this war. After all, the regular army is not involved in this war, but Hezbollah, which operates as a state within a state without any political control.”

Lebanon is already burdened by outbreaks of crises in neighboring countries. Over one and a half million displaced people from Syria have sought refuge in Lebanon, hoping to return home as soon as possible. Also, for decades the country has hosted hundreds of thousands of Palestinian refugees. Now the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah further burdens the country’s economy. “The first effects are already visible,” points out Michael Bauer. “International airlines are suspending their flights to and from Beirut. Many governments are issuing travel advisories or tightening the guidelines already in place…’.

Edited by: Yiannis Papadimitriou