For the first time since World War II, foreign troops are on Russian soil. Putin faces a new challenge, one he appears to underestimate. In Russia’s Kursk region, Ukrainian soldiers are taking down Russian flags from public buildings and residents are being forced to leave their homes to shelters or their relatives.

Russian refugees wait in lines to receive food, personal hygiene products and humanitarian aid. Since about 10,000 Ukrainian soldiers invaded Russia on August 6, “more than 121,000 people have been displaced from nine border regions in Russia,” reports Russia’s TASS news agency.

President Vladimir Putin, however, continues to call the first invasion of Russia by a foreign power since World War II pejoratively a “provocation” by Kiev.

Officially, the border areas near Ukraine have been declared a state of emergency. The Kremlin has declared the area an “anti-terrorist operations zone”, as if there are a handful of militants in the wider area that need to be neutralized.

Ukrainians exposed the Russian military and Putin

Meanwhile, the Ukrainian troops are strengthening their positions, as Russian military bloggers are now noting. Kiev continues to transfer weapons and military technology to the Kursk region.

The Russian president faces a problem that will preoccupy him for many months to come, US military analyst Michael Kofman opined in a Carnegie think tank Russian podcast with expert Alexander Baunov.

Michael Kofman believes that Ukrainian President Zelensky exposed the Russian army, as well as Vladimir Putin, with the surprise attack. At the same time, however, he finds that the West may avoid providing further military aid, in order to avoid escalation.

Two weeks after the start of the Ukrainian ground offensive, the Kremlin appears to be still in shock and slow to regain its footing. Many Russians openly express their surprise that the Ukrainian army invaded Russia without much resistance. Even staunch supporters of President Putin cannot believe what has happened in the Kursk region.

Russian MP Andrei Guruliov can’t imagine that no one was aware of the troop build-up on the Ukrainian side and the danger of an invasion: “No one in Russia loves the truth. In the reports, everyone wants to hear that there is no problem,” the retired general complains on state television.

Nothing can force the Russians to negotiate

Russian political scientist Alexander Baunov makes it clear on his podcast, however, that Vladimir Putin is not in danger: “He has no critics in the country, no strong opponents,” says the expert, who lives in exile in Berlin. Recently the Russian president managed to “get rid” of another political opponent in a prisoner exchange. This is the opposition politician Ilya Yassin, who wherever he finds and wherever he stands characterizes Putin’s war in Ukraine as a crime.

At the same time commentators point out that the Russian president has always had the ability to use even the biggest crises to his advantage. Putin is known to argue that the West is using Ukraine as a tool to bring about Russia’s breakup. Moscow has long viewed the conflict over Ukraine as essentially a proxy war.

Alexander Baunov believes that with the presence of Western weapons in the Kursk region, many more Russians are ready to believe the Kremlin’s narrative that NATO and the West are actually trying to defeat Russia militarily.

In Kiev, however, President Zelensky states that the attack is progressing according to plan and that the aim is to increase pressure on Moscow so that negotiations can begin to end the war. He also emphasizes that the Russians should realize what war means and thus come to their senses. But Alexander Baunov disagrees and underlines: “It goes without saying that Russia cannot be forced into negotiation.”

Editor: Stefanos Georgakopoulos