In the shadow of the conflict between Iran and Israel, many Iranians are anxiously awaiting the outcome of the US presidential election. They are well aware that a possible US military intervention on the side of Israel could have disastrous consequences for Iran.

“Under the great pressure of the economic crisis, many Iranians desire a radical change. “Many of them see Donald Trump as someone who could possibly end the regime of the Islamic Republic,” explains Iranian journalist Fariba Pajoh, who has worked for over 15 years in moderate Iranian newspapers, as well as television programs such as Euronews .

“I would like Iran to be very successful,” Trump said on Oct. 17 in an interview on Iranian-American Patrick Bett-David’s podcast. The former president made it clear, however, that Iran should not under any circumstances have nuclear weapons. When asked if he favored a change in the political system in Iran, Donald Trump replied: “We can’t get too involved. Let’s face it. We can’t even rule our own country here.”

The “maximum pressure” policy did not work

As president, Trump withdrew in 2018 from the Iran nuclear deal, which was concluded in late 2015 under Barack Obama after more than a dozen years of negotiations. Donald Trump’s policy of “maximum pressure” on Iran has not worked: a year after the US withdrew from the nuclear deal, Tehran began to gradually withdraw from its obligations. So today Iran is closer than ever to the construction nuclear bomb.

In the escalating conflict between Iran and Israel, Donald Trump, unlike his White House successor Joe Biden, has openly advocated an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities. It remains to be seen what will happen after the US presidential election. “If Kamala Harris is elected, her administration is likely to pursue short-term deals with Iran,” said Sina Azodi, a lecturer at the Elliott School of International Affairs in Washington, in an interview with DW. As vice president, Kamala Harris had supported efforts to revive the deal over the past four years. However, these efforts were unsuccessful.

Trump’s goal is to expand the Abraham Accords

Last week the Republican candidate explained to Al Arabiya broadcaster what he might do. He would try to include Iran in the Abraham Accords along with at least a dozen other countries. We remind you that the Abraham Accords, signed at the White House in September 2020, normalized relations between Israel, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and later Morocco. “Under my leadership, peace in the Middle East would be possible”, declares Donald Trump before the election.

Time will tell if the leadership of the Islamic Republic will reach a broad agreement with a Trump president. So far the regime in Tehran has no answer to the growing discontent of the population due to the sanctions, but also political pressures from abroad. The next stage in the escalation of the conflict with Israel, which has state-of-the-art weapons thanks to its Western allies and can count on President Trump’s support if elected, could culminate in a devastating war on Iran.

Editor: Stefanos Georgakopoulos