Erhurman: How different he will be from previous leaders

By Stefanos Nikolaidis

OR election of Tufan Erhiurman at Occupiedwith one a difference of almost 30 percentage points against the originator Ersin Tatargives birth new questions and moderate expectations: will he really be able to new Turkish Cypriot leader to prove different from them predecessors of or will be found, like so many before him, trapped at tight hug her Ankara;

The result of the ballot seems to recommend voice message of Turkish Cypriots in favor of her moderationher worldliness and one more European perspective· however, the questions about the real margins of autonomy of Erchiurman they remain openly.

THE Recep Tayyip Erdoganalthough he had openly supported him during the pre-election period hard Tatar, hurry up after the announcement of the results to congratulate him new “president” of Possesseddeclaring that Turkey will continue to “defends sovereign rights» her breakaway “TRNK». OR double this language -obviously calculated – leaves open the question if it is about regular folding or for one new cycle of political deception on her behalf Ankara.

In this context, the director of the Institute of International Affairs (IGA) Konstantinos Philisspeaking to skai.grappreciates it election result as “deafening message from the Turkish Cypriots» to those who maintain it deadlock and her dependence from the Turkeywarning however that “we must be extremely careful in case Ankara attempts once again to embellish its image».

“Deafening message” in two directions

OR sweeping victory of Tufan Erhiurmanas noted by Konstantinos Philisconstitutes one deafening message of Turkish Cypriots to two main directions:

• On the one hand, to them fans of status quothe preservation of which drives them further away every day Turkish Cypriots from the Europetrapping them in one status of absolute dependence from the Anchor — one condition which has led to their substantial attachment from “motherland».
• On the other hand, to them circles her of deep Turkish preservation and his AKPwhich they attempt to impose on Occupied a model of Islamic social behaviorwhich was ultimately rejected.

According to Mr. Fili, the win of Erchiurman it’s a win for her worldlinessher extroversion and her European course. It also confirms the lasting influence of CHP to the Turkish Cypriotswhich over time they are differentiated from the conservative Islamic narrative her Ankara.

The “paradox” of Erdogan’s stance

Of particular interest presents, according to the professor of International Relations, the decision of Recep Tayyip Erdogan to allow her holding free elections this time at Occupiedas opposed to 2020when to elect the Tatar opposite to Akinci “the outcome was determined by interventions from above».

OR current position of Erdogan seems to obey you more complex calculationsas the chief exponent of deep state governor, Devlet Bakhcelirushed to ask for her annulment of the electionto be “emptied” afterwards by both vice president her Turkish government as well as by T. himselfurko president.

Even more revealing, as Mr. Filis emphasizes, is the confirmed information that the Anchor gave line of abstinence to the settlerswhich probably already constitute majority against the Turkish Cypriots. This “paved the way for Erhiurman’s election“, a fact that gives rise to the question if the Turkish leadership consciously attempted one partial folding.

Attempted tactical folding or change of strategy?

“That’s done“, wonders o Konstantinos Philis“because the Tatar paper had been burned due to his intransigence and the bad impression he made on his international interlocutors?”

Or maybe the Anchor realized that the doctrine of two states can’t find anymore support at international community and decided to support one new leader which at least states ultra her bizonal bicommunal federation (DDO);

According to Mr. Fili, the more likely is that the Anchor attempts one controlled landscaping her image of herintegrated into one broader context of communicative repositioning.

“Probably Erdogan, steadily reaching out to Trump, satisfying his disposition to seek or even impose consents and solutions, invests in consolidating Turkey’s image as a peacemaker in the wider region“, notes the Greek analyst.

Through this image, the Anchor expectations to bend the resistances for the her participation in European defense programs and for her sale of fighters and other defense systems from the USA.

“Evidence, not intentions”

THE Konstantinos Philis closes his analysis with clear warning:

“We have to be very careful in case Turkey tries once again to embellish its image. Evidence is required, not mere manifestations of intent.”

OR Cyprushe recalls, has been upgraded to American designswith her Washington to promote the stability in its entirety Eastern Mediterranean.

This condition, once exploited, can “heats up the engines» for resumption of substantive discussions at Cypriotprovided, however, that the international community it will not suffice to superficial gestures of goodwill from side Ankara.

OR election of Erhiurmanalthough it gives birth hopes for one new pagedoes not remove them deeper constants of Cyprus: the presence of an occupying armyhim settlement and him control her Turkey.

The question remains: will the new Turkish Cypriot leader be able to move with relative autonomy or will he ultimately prove to be just different in rhetoric, same in essence;