The Berlin is betting on a Kamala Harris victory in hopes that she will continue to foster close transatlantic relations, like President Biden. At the same time, two-thirds of Germans want to see Kamala Harris sworn in as president of the United States of America, according to an Ipsos poll from early October, with just 12% in favor. Donald Trump. Even clearer is the result of Deutschlandtrend on behalf of the German public television ARD, again from the beginning of October: 78% in favor of Kamala Harris and 8% in favor of Donald Trump.

What are the most important areas in which the outcome of the US election is particularly important for Germany?

International Trade

The US is one of its most important trading partners Germany. Every move in Washington, regarding economic policy, has a direct impact on the German economy. Trump has announced pre-election tariffs of 60% on imports from China and 20% on imports from the rest of the world. This would make German products significantly more expensive in the US. In this case, the automotive industry and the pharmaceutical industry are mainly affected.

O Andreas Baur from the Munich economic institute Ifo tells DW: “You can take for granted that trading partners such as China will react to the imposition of tariffs. The fear of an escalation and a global trade war is therefore well-founded.”

Ukraine

One of the most pressing questions for Berlin is what will happen with the support of Ukraine. Let’s not forget that today the USA is by far the most important supplier of weapons and financier to Ukraine, with Germany following in second place. Kamala Harris has never left any doubt that he will continue to help her Ukraine. Donald Trump, on the other hand, is seeking a quick end to the war, which likely means Ukraine will be forced to cede large swathes of its territory to Russia.

Security expert Nico Lange speaks of a more general ambiguity about Donald Trump’s intentions: “We don’t know what a Trump victory would mean for support for Ukraine and the war. On the other hand, however, we cannot argue that Donald Trump will sell out Ukraine. After all, the special characteristic of the former president is that he is unpredictable.”

NATO – International Security

The US vice president has openly advocated multilateral cooperation and NATO. “It’s clear that America cannot stand back in these uncertain times,” Kamala Harris says at her campaign rallies. Apparently the Democratic candidate does not want to jeopardize the US’s international alliances. Trump, on the other hand, has repeatedly openly questioned even the meaning of the NATO alliance.

German expert Nico Lange tells DW that the answer to the Trump or Harris question is difficult: “The situation would be somewhat easier and predictable if Kamala Harris won the presidency. But regardless of the outcome of the American elections, it is clear that Europeans must do more for their security. And even if they want to, they cannot bypass this fact.”

Editor: Stefanos Georgakopoulos