Turkey has been trapped in its tactics for the past two years, says in the exclusive interview given to SKAI and Apostolos Maggeriadis, the American analyst and scholar of modern Turkey, Nicholas Danforth.
He even claims that America is determined to go to the end Erdogan to reverse his decision to supply S-400s.
The interview in detail:
Question: In recent days, we have seen a growing frustration with the rhetoric of Turkish officials. Akar spoke of aggressive actions by Greece and Cyprus. Celik stated that Greece provokes. Where does this escalation come from?
Nicholas Danforth: I think we are seeing a peak of momentum in the eastern Mediterranean over the last two years. Turkey is feeling more and more surrounded by enemy forces, by an alliance of enemy forces. Yet, responds steadily with provocative movements, which do not lead her to the exit from this isolation, moves that not only reinforced fears between Turkey’s neighbors, but strengthened the kind of co-operation and leaves Turkey feeling surrounded. At the moment, you see that Turkey’s efforts to reach out to Egypt have not gone as well as Ankara hoped. You see a new crisis unfolding with Israel, over the arrest of a pair of Israelis with false accusations of spying. At the same time, of course, the Greek-French defense agreement increases Greek cooperation with the United States. Again, I think this only reinforces the momentum, which led Ankara to take the steps, which in turn led to the very things you see today.
Question: For the first time, Erdogan spoke publicly about the possibility of losing the election. Is this a sign of awareness, that he is isolated, internally and externally?
Nicholas Danforth: It is very difficult to know what is going to happen in the upcoming Turkish elections, we are at a point where many observers are very confident that the elections will be fair. And that according to opinion polls, Erdogan will clearly lose this will be the end of Erdogan. There are other observers, who are equally convinced that despite this momentum, Erdogan has pledged to retain power in an authoritarian manner, using all necessary means, and that he will eventually succeed. Again, there is a long tradition of free and fair elections in Turkey. This country had coups, but when elections were held, they were fair and the results were respected.
Question: What about the request to upgrade the F-16s? Is Turkey able to negotiate alternative sources of military equipment?
Nicholas Danforth: You know, in this, the US relationship with Turkey has changed, as I think we have discussed here, in the past. Slowly but surely, you have seen a shift: from the US government’s concern about how to avoid the “loss” of Turkey, to the position that the United States must take tougher action to confront Turkey. What is happening with Turkey’s request for new F-16 markets and F-16 upgrades will really be a test of how far this change in US policy has come. Again, there are people who watch it very closely and think at the end of the day that the fears of losing Turkey, the fears of turning Turkey towards Russia, will be big enough for the US government to approve them. the sales. And you hear others predict that the frustration with Turkey is so intense, the feeling that the United States must finally confront Turkey is so strong, that without any compromise on Russian S-400 missiles, this F-16 sale will never take place. And so again, I think we will find out soon in this case.
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