Erdogan’s dangerous game and his limits

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By Antonis Anzoletos

The game is well known. Turkey claims once again how her provocative actions are a response to Greek violations. This was supported by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the reaction was assessed as expected by the Greek side, which once again faces the intense mobility of its neighbors with composure. “It was an extremely provocative action that met with a very strong reaction from the Greek Foreign Ministry,” he said. Giannis Oikonomou to SKAI referring to his reaction State Department.

Tayyip Erdogan has decided to enter a trajectory of conflict with Greece and invests in intensity. Ankara’s rhetoric has been upgraded, as it is one of the few times it admits to violating Greek airspace. The Turkish president responds to the Greek Prime Minister’s visit to Washington and diplomatic sources claim that with her move, Turkey seeks to send a message to the United States due to the importance that the port of Alexandroupolis has acquired for the country. Turkey is bothered by the huge military, trade and energy upgrade of Alexandroupolis which greatly increases the Greek geopolitical footprint in the region. The acceleration of the agreements for the construction of an LNG terminal, as well as the synergies with Bulgaria and other Balkan countries that have turned the city of Thrace into a center of developments, should also be included in the equation.

Erdogan’s moves are coordinated. In the Eastern Mediterranean, it has announced that it will launch the fourth drilling rig in the summer. It moored, in fact, the day before yesterday in the port of Mersina destined for drilling in July. At the same time, it is pushing and using the veto in NATO for the entry of Finland – Sweden in order to succeed in the purchase and upgrade of F-16. Experienced analysts, of course, argue that Ankara does not have the power to prevent such a major geopolitical event. With this move, he simply satisfies the Russian side by showing Vladimir Putin that he remains a loyal ally. Tayyip Erdogan is calling for the lifting of the informal embargo on all European countries on war material, and for this reason a series of phone calls has already begun. He knows very well that with the economic crisis plaguing Europe because of the war in Ukraine. no one at the forthcoming European Council (30-31 May) will take it seriously.

The purchase of F-35s from Greece is still far away, however the French Rafale that the country will acquire by 2027 in combination with the modernization of F-16s change the balance of power in the Aegean. Ankara’s attempt to become a regional naval “observer” in the region certainly does not sound good to Washington, and according to international analysts, its moves are in most cases motivated by the need for Erdogan to be liked by his audience in view of the audience. June 2023.

What is Tayyip Erdogan hoping for now? In a direct meeting with Joe Biden that will give him many “points” inside his field. The Turkish Foreign Minister, Mevlüt Çavuşoλουlu, said on Wednesday that an appointment with the Turkish president is underway. However, Jake Sullivan revealed that this will not happen soon. And this, of course, causes additional irritation which translates into a new barrage of challenges to Greece. The truth, however, is that there is no room for a hot episode at the moment in the Eastern Mediterranean. At a time when the international community is turning its attention to Ukraine, any move by Ankara would equate it with Vladimir Putin’s Russia.

Turkey is negotiating its repositioning in the western world in a very unorthodox way. However, it seems to be based on the tolerance shown so far by the US, the major European countries, but also the EU in a number of challenges.

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