From the possibility of elimination in the Qatar Cup, which would come with a defeat to Mexico, Argentina not only has a chance to qualify for the round of 16, but also depends on its own performance to be the leader of Group C.
The goals by Messi and Enzo Fernández at the Lusail stadium, which earned the triumph by 2-0, put the Argentines in second place in the group, with 3 points, the same number as Saudi Arabia, tormentor in the opening match, which is a worse goal difference.
Poland, Argentina’s opponent in the final round of the group, on Wednesday (30), leads with 4 points. Mexico, at the bottom, has 1 point.
Thus, to qualify, Argentina only needs to overcome the Poles. More than that: if they win and Saudi Arabia does not beat Mexico by a good margin, they will be in first place, since they have a better goal difference (1 against -1).
A draw could also serve to allow the two-time world champions (1978 and 1986) to move on to the knockout phase of the Cup, in second place.
This will happen if the match between the Mexicans and the Saudis ends in a tie, as Argentina will have the same 4 points as the Arab team but will surpass it on goal difference.
However, if Argentina draw and Saudi Arabia win, the South American country will be out.
If Argentina draws and Mexico wins, there will be triple equality in points – the two teams plus Poland, which also beat Tunisia this Saturday (26).
In this situation, the goal difference defines the rankings, and mathematics comes into play.
Argentina will be behind Lewandowski’s Poland, who have a two-goal difference, one more than the team coached by Lionel Scaloni.
Thus, Argentina has to root for Mexico (balance -2) not to win by four goals ahead of the Saudis, as it will lose on balance.
The Mexicans winning by up to two goals apart (they would have a 0 balance), Argentina passes.
If Mexico wins by a difference of three goals, the math gets more complicated, as it will involve the score of both matches, since the goal difference will be the same (1) and the number of goals in favor will break the tie.
At this moment, the Argentines have three goals in favor, and the Mexicans, none.
Equal goal difference and equal number of pro goals (what happens, for example, if the results were Argentina 0 x 0 Poland and Mexico 3 x 0 Saudi Arabia)? Argentina passes, as the next tiebreaker is head-to-head.
Thus, the scenarios allow Argentina fans to be optimistic, but it is worth remembering that a simple defeat to Poland will send Messi and company back home.
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