Shots and goals from outside the area are exceptions in the Qatar Cup

Goals scored from outside the penalty area became rarer at the 2022 World Cup in Qatar.

In the 62 matches played up to the semifinals, only 12 midfielders ended up in the back of the net, including two on free kicks.

This number represents 7.4% of the 163 goals scored so far. It is the lowest percentage recorded at least since the 1966 edition, the first with data cataloged by the company specializing in sports statistics Opta.

In comparison, there were 23 long-range goals up to this stage at the previous World Cup: equivalent to 14.3% of the total of 161, or nearly double the number this year.

This is not to say that the players’ aim has deteriorated. In fact, they are betting less on this type of kick.

Instead of risking a shot with a high chance of being blocked or going out through the bottom line, athletes have preferred to rotate the ball from one end to the other or restart the play from the defense field, until they find better conditions for the shot.

The use of finals has improved between the last two Cups. Shots went down, while goals went up.

When considering only the plays with the ball rolling –not counting penalties and free kicks–, the total number of shots dropped by 9% (from 1,463 to 1,336), and the number of goals increased by 19% (from 122 to 145).

The biggest difference is precisely in kicks from outside the area. Long-distance attempts decreased by 22% between the two Worlds (from 593 to 465).

The number of shots from inside the area remained stable (870 and 871, respectively), with a higher concentration in the zones closest to the goal this year.

A possible explanation for this phenomenon is the improvement of statistical analyzes as part of the work of technical commissions.

Popularized by electronic games and sports betting sites, one of the most observed indicators today is the xG, an abbreviation for the English term “expected goals”.

Basically, it is the probability of a shot ending up in the net, depending on the place on the field and under what conditions it occurs.

The calculations are made from databases with thousands of shots recorded in previous matches and their known outcomes.

In this way, a team can prepare to exploit opponents’ weaknesses and build plays that can be completed in zones with a higher xG, thus increasing the chances of reaching the goal.

Argentina and France reach the final next Sunday (18) each with a goal from outside the area in this edition.

Lionel Messi scored for the South American team in the 2-0 victory over Mexico, still in the first phase. And Tchouaméni, in the Europeans’ 2-1 triumph over England, in the quarterfinals.

In the 2018 decision, the French counted on two goals from outside the area to beat Croatia 4-2 and win the title. Pogba and Mbappé were the authors.