Former French coach Arsène Wenger released the richest study of this World Cup. He points out that 85% of the goals are born by the sides of the field. Current director of global football development at Fifa, the English champion coach, undefeated by Arsenal, is convinced that the winner will be whoever has the best wingers.
In this case, it will be France. Dembélé and Mbappé are the best wingers in the World Cup. Argentina doesn’t even point to the scale. Their midfield line has two open midfielders, De Paul on the right, Mac Allister on the left.
Another, less scientific study is in this columnist’s file. Of the 62 World Cup games, only 21 (34%) were won by those who had more possession of the ball; 27 (43%) for those who spent less than half of the game exchanging passes. There were 14 draws.
The account is inverse in relation to the finishes. Those who shoot the most goals in Qatar win 43% of the time, 35% are victories for those who risk less on goal and 22% were equalities.
Care must be taken not to turn statistics into superstition.
Brazil was sovereign in possession of the ball in all games, except against Croatia. In the elimination match, he shot 19 times, and the Croatians, 8. Tite saw his selection hit the target 11 times. Zlatko Dalic, just one. Goal by Bruno Petkovic.
In the semi-final, Croatia had more possession and shots than Argentina. Lost 3-0.
Contradictions do not make studies unfeasible.
There are situations in which the big team cannot give up attacking, which does not prevent France from beating Morocco with just 42% possession. Argentina beat Croatia keeping only 45% of the time with the ball.
If it only depended on what the numbers against the games show, France would be the winner against Argentina in the final. It has the best wingers and only registered supremacy in the exchange of passes against Australia and Tunisia. Shot more on goal than most opponents, except against the English.
The Argentines just didn’t have more possession, or shots, in the semifinal against Croatia.
You can’t believe that football is moving in that direction. This data looks richer in knockout games. Of the four major leagues in Europe, Bayern, Napoli and Barcelona are leaders and have the highest foot ball rate. The exception is Arsenal, placed first in the English table and fourth in that criterion, led by Manchester City, champion of the last two seasons using the same strategy of exchanging passes.
However, Guardiola lost the Champions League final to Chelsea in 2021 with 61% possession and fewer shots on goal.
Palmeiras was fifth in the Brazilian Championship, and Flamengo was seventh in the Libertadores, with a foot ball. They were champions.
Whoever scores the most goals wins. That simple. There are different paths to victory, different ways to play well.
The great balance between the teams, resulting from the knowledge of players who play in the elite of clubs in Europe and spread across their countries, increases the need to try to understand what works and what goes wrong.
In addition to having more goals, this Cup, played at the end of the year, once again privileges those with the most decisive players. As we said here upon arrival in Qatar, the best in the world did not shine in the World Cups of the 21st century, due to wear and tear at the end of the long European seasons. Now, you are among them.
The challenge is one of style, but also of genius: Messi x Mbappé.
As a seasoned news journalist, I bring a wealth of experience to the field. I’ve worked with world-renowned news organizations, honing my skills as a writer and reporter. Currently, I write for the sports section at News Bulletin 247, where I bring a unique perspective to every story.
