Olympiacos-Real: The big boss and the… White Walkers

Olympic against Real, then. One of the two teams will be crowned European champion on Sunday night in Kaunas. On the one hand, arguably the best team in Europe this year, but on the other an opponent that no one dares to underestimate, as anyone who has done so has paid dearly for it.

Like in a video game, the ultrasonic team of Giorgos Bartzokas after passing through all the stages, he reached the last track. There, as in electronics, he will have to deal with the… big boss, the giant Tavares, but not only him. The three veterans, the reborn Hezonia, and generally an ensemble that has proven too tough to die. Something like the White Walkers in Game of Thrones, this Real refuses to surrender. Either some expect a collapse after the golden era of Pablo Lasso, or they are 0-2 against Partizan, or they reach the Final 4 without a top three, or everyone expects them to lose in the semi-finals to Barcelona. The guys in white always find a way to survive. Will they do it on Sunday too?

Many similarities, but also many differences

The numbers, but also the safe sample, having now played 40 (!) games to reach the grand final, show that Olympiacos and Real have so many similarities, but also so many differences.

First, it’s about the two best defenses in the Euroleague, with the Piraeus winning the points. In attack, the distances are shorter, with Real having more production in absolute numbers, but Olympiakos having better numbers per 100 possessions, since the Madrid players play at a slightly higher tempo.

The two teams are close in three-point accuracy rates, with Olympiakos the best in two-point accuracy and Real first in the entire EuroLeague in… two-point misses by its opponents.

The statistical comparison: Olympiacos-Real

Attack (Pro Points): 82.9 (6th) – 85.5 (2nd)

Points Per 100 Possessions (ORTG): 119.1 (3rd) – 118.5 (5th)

Number of Holdings: 69.6 (12th) – 71.6 (4th)

Shooting accuracy: 76.2% (15th) – 80.3% (6th)

Two-point accuracy: 60.1% (1st) – 57.5% (2nd)

Three-point accuracy: 37.1% (6th) – 36.7% (8th)

Percentage of attacks that occur with a three-pointer: 43.8% – 40.7%%

Percentage of points from three-pointers: 34.8% – 31.8%

Assist: 21 (1st) – 19.2 (6th)

Percentage of baskets from assists: 71% (2nd) – 64.1% (5th)

Errors: 12.8 (11th) – 12.8 (11th)

Fouls won: 20.9 (4th) – 20.9 (4th)

Defense (Points Against): 75.2 (1st) – 80 (6th)

Points Per 100 Possessions (DRTG): 107.8 (1st) – 110.6 (2nd)

Opponents’ two-point accuracy: 51.5% (3rd) – 49.4% (1st)

Opponents’ three-point accuracy: 36.5% (10th) – 36% (8th)

Assist Opponents: 16.7 (5th) – 15.2 (2nd)

Opponents’ Mistakes: 13.6 (2nd) – 10.9 (17th)

Total Rebounds: 33.7 (8th) – 36.7 (1st)

Defensive Rebounds: 24.2 (3rd) – 26.7 (1st)

Defensive Rebound Percentage he gets from what he claims: 72.1% (2nd) – 71.8% (4th)

Offensive Rebounds: 9.5 (13th) – 10 (10th)

Offensive Rebound Percentage he gets from what he claims: 30.8% (9th) – 31.1% (8th)

Opponents Offensive Rebounds: 9.4 (3rd) – 10.6 (13th)

Steals: 7.5 (1st) – 5.7 (8th)

Tapas: 2.2 (10th) – 4.1 (1st)

Foul Against: 18.8 (2nd) – 21.4 (12th)

Rating: 100.9 (2nd) – 100.8 (1st)

“Keys”, strengths and weaknesses of Real

Real without… fireworks had a season that was ultimately probably underestimated by everyone. He didn’t dazzle with the basketball he played, but he finished the regular season at 23-11, just one win behind Olympiakos. Who, however, won it twice, both with a high score in Madrid, and with a low score in SEF.

The reference point of the group is the Eddie Tavares. The player who was named the best defender of the season is the most influential player of Real. In the playoffs and the semi-final, in addition to the well-known “spook” in defense, he scored 17 points, 9 rebounds and a 29.2 rating per game! While he is on the floor, the “queen” has 120.9 points per 100 possessions in attack and 107.5 points per 100 possessions in defense, that is a Net Rating +13.4!

But because every coin has two sides, the center from Cape Verde feels alone in Kaunas. With Poirier injured, Randolph a shadow of his pre-injury self and Cornelius just… reference, the options at the ‘5’ are very limited. Tavares was forced to play 28:40 in the playoffs and 33:10 in the semifinal. If Olympiacos manage to wear him down, either with fouls or by troubling him defensively with quick turnover and unpredictable play, they will have done half the job.

Big headache for Real is position “4”. With Dek injured and Yabusele suspended, Madrid have lost much of their strength in the position. However, in the semi-final they succeeded famously, after neutralizing Mirotic. Hezonia played perhaps the most mature critical match of his career on both sides of the floor as a “4”, while 18-year-old Eli Ediage also provided solutions. But in the final, they will not find against them in “4” the weak-hearted (as it turned out for the umpteenth time) Mirotic, but the MVP Sasha Vezenkov.

Since last year a big weakness for Real is position “1”. The team lacks a classic playmaker apart from 37-year-old Sergio Rodriguez. However, the latter, together with fellow senior Sergio Yule, had 10 of the team’s 17 assists in the semi-final. Of course, Musa’s contribution to the creation will be needed, although the Bosnian – a member of the best five – has noticeably “fallen” since the playoffs and after. Finally, another issue for Real is that the first defensive zone is problematic. Apart from Hanga, there is no player who effectively presses the ball.

I stood out, however, from any weaknesses, Real has character and personality. The one that derives from them three bodyguards, Chacho, Rudy and Yul, who have so much experience that they know how to win big games and have done so many times with Real or the national team. But not only them, since even Kosher has a tradition of big Final 4 performances, albeit now coming off the bench.

Three finals and 45 years of prehistory

Olympiacos and Real face each other for the fourth time in a Euroleague final, with the Madrid side having won twice, in 1995 and 2015, both on Spanish soil, in Zaragoza and the capital respectively. The “red and whites”, on the other hand, have won the only final on neutral ground, that of 2013 in London.

In total, the two sides have played 47 times in the last 45 years, with Real holding a marginal lead with 24 wins to Olympiakos’ 23. However, this year Piraeus are 2/2, winning both in Madrid, with Sluka’s goal in front of Tavares just before the end (87-89), and in SEF in an amazing defensive game (73-60).

1978-79 Real Madrid-Olympiacos 113-72 (Champions League Group Stage)

1978-79 Olympiacos-Real Madrid 97-101 (Women’s Champions Cup Group Stage)

1992-93 Real Madrid-Olympiacos 92-74 (Euroleague Group Stage)

1992-93 Olympiacos-Real Madrid 63-62 (Euroleague Group Stage)

1993-94 Real Madrid-Olympiacos 57-58 (Euroleague Group Stage)

1993-94 Olympiacos-Real Madrid 75-73 (Euroleague Group Stage)

1994-95 Real Madrid-Olympiacos 73-61 (Final Final 4 Zaragoza)

1995-96 Olympiacos-Real Madrid 68-49 (Euroleague quarter-finals first leg)

1995-96 Real Madrid-Olympiacos 80-77 (Quarterfinals Euroleague second leg)

1995-96 Real Madrid-Olympiacos 80-65 (Quarterfinals Euroleague-3rd match)

1997-98 Real Madrid-Olympiacos 77-78 (Euroleague Group Stage)

1997-98 Olympiacos-Real Madrid 82-75 (Euroleague Group Stage)

16/10/2000 Real Madrid-Olympiacos 75-73 (Regular Time)

6/12/2000 Olympiacos-Real Madrid 91-84 (Regular Time)

14/11/2002 Real Madrid-Olympiacos 73-66 (Regular Time)

6/2/2003 Olympiacos-Real Madrid 71-68 (Regular Time)

25/11/2004 Real Madrid-Olympiacos 76-62 (Regular Time)

20/1/2005 Olympiacos-Real Madrid 75-83 (Regular Time)

21/1/2008 Real Madrid-Olympiacos 80-70 (Top 16)

20/3/2008 Olympiacos-Real Madrid 72-63 (Top 16)

24/3/2009 Olympiacos-Real Madrid 88-79 (Play-Offs)

26/3/2009 Olympiacos-Real Madrid 79-73 (Play-Offs)

31/3/2009 Real Madrid-Olympiacos 71-63 (Play-Offs)

2/4/2009 Real Madrid-Olympiacos 75-78 (Play-Offs)

10/18/2010 Olympiacos-Real Madrid 82-66 (Regular Time)

25/10/2010 Real Madrid-Olympiacos 82-68 (Regular Time)

12/5/2013 Olympiacos-Real Madrid 100-88 (Final)

4/15/2014 Real Madrid-Olympiacos 88-71 (Play-Offs)

4/17/2014 Real Madrid-Olympiacos 82-77 (Play-Offs)

21/4/2014 Olympiacos-Real Madrid 78-76 (Play-Offs)

23/4/2014 Olympiacos-Real Madrid 71-62 (Play-Offs)

4/25/2014 Real Madrid-Olympiacos 83-69 (Play-Offs)

5/17/2015 Real Madrid-Olympiacos 78-59 (Final)

28/1/2016 Real Madrid-Olympiacos 84-72 (Top 16)

25/4/2016 Olympiacos-Real Madrid 99-84 (Top 16)

12/10/2016 Real Madrid-Olympiacos 83-65 (Regular Time)

8/12/2017 Olympiacos-Real Madrid 92-83 (Regular Time)

9/2/2018 Real Madrid-Olympiacos 79-80 (Regular Time)

22/11/2018 Olympiacos-Real Madrid 88-83 (Regular Time)

10/1/2019 Real Madrid-Olympiacos 94-78 (Regular Time)

12/12/2019 Real Madrid-Olympiacos 93-77 (Regular Time)

12/18/2020 Olympiacos-Real Madrid 82-86 (Regular Time)

2/4/2021 Real Madrid-Olympiacos 72-63 (Regular Time)

8/10/2021 Olympiacos-Real Madrid 74-68 (Regular Time)

2/2/2022 Real Madrid-Olympiacos 75-67 (Regular Time)

19/10/2022 Real Madrid-Olympiacos 87-89 (Regular duration)

20/01/2023 Olympiacos-Real Madrid 73-60 (Regular Time)