Opinion – Renata Mendonça: Paulista Final 2022 repeats 2021, but in a very different context

São Paulo and Palmeiras will decide the title of the Campeonato Paulista in 2022. A final identical to the one in 2021 and, at the same time, very different.

In last year, the favoritism was a little (not so much, but a little) for São Paulo for the impeccable campaign that it made in the first phase and for the moment of the team very well integrated in the way of playing of Hernán Crespo. On the other hand, Palmeiras was coming from an extremely exhausting period, including the trip to the World Cup and no time to breathe between the end of one season and the beginning of another.

But in 2022 the reality is different. Since the 2021 Libertadores final, Palmeiras has been planning to reach their physical peak in February for the World Cup. The team played well there, competed well with Chelsea (lost in extra time) and came back even stronger for the season.

São Paulo, in turn, started 2022 hesitantly. It had already ended 2021 in a melancholy way, without Rogério Ceni having managed to fit the team, which fought not to fall in the Brazilian. But the decision to keep the idol in office was the right one.

And, in the immediacy of Brazilian football, it would be easy to change his mind at the bad start of Campeonato Paulista, in which São Paulo even found itself outside the classification zone for the quarterfinals in its group. Even with the reinforcements, the team took a while to get going.

São Paulo, which ended 2021 with the worst attack in its history in the era of the Brazilian’s consecutive points, reaches the Paulistão final with the best attack in the competition (24 goals scored). Of course, the state is not a thermometer of what will happen in the season – see what happened with São Paulo last year –, but those who saw the first games of Rogério Ceni’s team at Paulista and saw the last ones can see the clear evolution.

The 2021 Palmeiras had a strong complaint from coach Abel Ferreira for the number of goals conceded in the Brazilian (it was the sixth worst defense, with 43 goals conceded). “I can’t go on the field and concede a goal the way we are suffering. It’s a lack of collective defensive commitment”, he said, still in the 23rd round. In 2022, in Paulistão, Palmeiras has the lowest average of goals conceded in the history of the competition. The defense of the team commanded by Abel was only leaked four times in 14 games.

It will be the confrontation of the best attack against the best defense of Paulista and also of two teams that learned to use their base very well.

This very successful era of Palmeiras had the direct participation of the offspring of the Academy. Patrick de Paula, Gabriel Menino and Wesley were some that stood out. In the current team, Danilo is an essential part of Abel Ferreira’s scheme, a midfielder who scores, disarms, builds, gives decisive passes and even scores.

In São Paulo, the main campaigns of the team in recent years had boys from Cotia as protagonists. In 2020, when the club fought for the Brazilian title, Brenner was top scorer, Gabriel Sara emerged as a great promise. In 2021, the champion team from São Paulo had a goal by Luan helping to decide in the final against Palmeiras. Now, again, the team’s highlights are not the popular reinforcements, but the midfielders Pablo Maia and Rodrigo Nestor, who support the dynamics of marking and building Rogério Ceni’s team.

The difference is that Palmeiras uses the base as a complement, São Paulo bets on it as a solution – and often overloads the boys with this pressure.

There is no denying that Abel Ferreira’s Palmeiras (almost a year and a half in office) are a more mature team, full of tactical variations and more ready to win the title. The final is the same, but favoritism in 2022 has changed sides.