New research suggests melting Arctic ice could “transform” international transport routes.
Studies show that global warming from melting Arctic ice could lead to new routes, reducing carbon dioxide emissions in the shipping industry and weakening Russia’s control over trade routes through the region.
Scientists say the future of the Arctic Ocean is dire, as climate change is rapidly warming the world’s oceans.
Climate models show that parts of the Arctic Circle, once covered in ice year-round, are warming so rapidly that they will remain ice-free for months after 20 years.
Scientists say changes in the Arctic climate pose a threat to many species that breed in freezing temperatures.
However, it may also provide a shorter and more environmentally friendly maritime trade route that bypasses the Russian-controlled Northern Sea Route.
In the United States, climate scientists at Brown University are working with legal experts to predict how melting Arctic ice will affect the regulation of ship routes in the coming decades.
They predicted that by 2065, shipping in the Arctic would increase significantly and a new trade route could be created on the high seas.
Lead author Professor Amanda Lynch said: “There is no scenario for Arctic ice melting.
But the sad reality is that the ice has receded and these routes are open, and we need to start thinking critically about the legal, environmental, and geopolitical implications.
Open a new route
Professor Lynch, who has been studying climate change in the Arctic for 30 years, will work with Dr Xueke Lee, a Postdoctoral Fellow at Brown University, to model four navigation scenarios based on four global achievements. Actions to curb climate change in the coming years.
They predict that climate change could open “some” new routes to the high seas by the middle of this century if world leaders fail to successfully curb warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius over the next 43 years.
Co-author Charles Noch, director of the Center for Coastal and Marine Law at Mainrow, said the change could have significant implications for global trade and global politics.
He explained that since 1982, the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea has allowed Arctic coastal nations to exercise more power over major shipping lanes.
Article 234 and Russia
Article 234 of the Convention, in the name of “Prevention, Reduction and Management of Marine Pollution by Ships”, regulates the movement of maritime routes by countries with coasts close to ships in the Arctic Circle, provided and when the territory is frozen. He claims he has the ability to do so. .. -Most of the year is covered.
Professor Noch claims that Russia has been using Section 234 for its economic and geopolitical interests for decades. According to one of the Russian laws, all ships passing through the Northern Sea Route must be owned by Russians.
Russia also requires passing ships to pay tolls and warns of plans to use the route in advance.
Professor Noji explained that large shipping companies often avoid heavy route restrictions and high costs, which is one of the few reasons to use the Suez and Panama canals instead. These are longer, cheaper and easier trade routes.
But when the ice begins to melt off the northern coast of Russia, Professor Noch says that it is in the case of his power to send to the Arctic Ocean.
He states: “The Russians continue to use Section 234 and will do everything they can to support it.
“But if the ice territory is barely covered in a year, article 234 will no longer apply and they will be questioned by the international community.
“Not only that, but as a result of melting ice, ships are transported from Russian waters to the high seas.
“If that happens, the result will be climate change and ship economics, so Russia won’t be able to do much.”
Impact on global shipping
Based on previous studies, the Arctic route is 30% to 50% shorter than the Panama and Suez Canal routes, with an estimated 14-20 day reduction in transit time, according to Professor Lynch.
This means that if the international Arctic Ocean warms enough to open new roads, shippers can reduce greenhouse gas emissions by about 24%, saving money and time.
Professor Lynch said: “These new potential Arctic routes will help us remember the moment the ship Evergiven sank in the Suez Canal, blocking important routes for weeks.
“The diversification of trade routes is much more resilient to the world’s transportation infrastructure, especially given the new routes that cannot be blocked because they are not canals.”
Professor Lynch can start a conversation about the future of Arctic trade with well-studied scholarship to help world leaders make informed decisions about protecting Earth’s climate from future damage. I hope that helps.
He added: “Marking these imminent changes now will prevent you from falling into a crisis that needs to be resolved quickly.
“Of course, actual refinement of an international agreement with some foresight and consideration is a better way.”
This study was published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
Source: Metro
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