‘I predict your death’: Our mobile phone can predict risk of death in the next 5 years

Data collected by mobile phone motion sensors from just six minutes of someone walking may be enough to predict the possibility of death of within the next five years, according to American researchers.

A study, led by Bruce Satz of the University of Illinois, published in the digital health journal PloS Digital Health, according to New Scientist, found the accuracy of the above method to be roughly comparable to that of more traditional methods. forecasting methods.

Previous research has estimated the risk of early death based on overall level of physical activity, using sensors in other devices such as “wristbands” and “smart” watches. Almost all people now have smartphones with similar motion sensors, but they don’t have their phone with them all the time, so their overall level of physical activity cannot be reliably recorded.

To find an alternative predictor of risk, the researchers analyzed the health data of 100,655 people who wore an electronic wristband with a motion sensor for a week. Over the next five years, about 2% of the participants had died of various causes.

The analysis through artificial intelligence – using an algorithm that estimated the risk of early death based only on acceleration during a six-minute walk – showed that when diseases such as heart and lung disease are present, people often slow their pace and then speed it up again in small doses. The new model can predict, based on the analysis of acceleration and deceleration, the future risk of death, with an accuracy comparable to other more traditional indicators (e.g. through health questionnaires or total daily activity).

Although the new research used motion sensors worn on the wrist, according to Satz, smartphones can also measure acceleration during a short walk, which allows for a similar risk prediction. The researchers even suggest that it is possible to use the data from mobile phones at the level of the entire population of a country, to assess the health status of the residents.

RES-EMP

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