It is understandable that, faced with the threat of potentially dangerous new variants of the Covid-19 coronavirus, such as the infamous omicron, the reaction of countries lucky enough to have an abundance of vaccines has been “let’s give booster doses to everyone” . Understandable, but essentially short-sighted. There is a considerable chance that, at bottom, the reaction turns out to be the equivalent of wiping ice, an exercise in futility.
As much as the booster doses are welcome, the focus of the vaccine effort, at this stage of the championship, should be increasingly global and local at the same time. First and second doses need to reach countries (and also regions of Brazil) that have not yet received enough of them, or the machine for producing dangerous variants of the virus will continue to run at full speed.
The reason behind this statement has to do with basic aspects of viral molecular biology (or any other creature on Earth that actually has genetic material). Some people call the DNA of our cells the “Book of Life” and, as much as the expression suggests a certain mystical aura, the fact is that there are some similarities between the genome and a book.
One of the most important is that both books and DNA contain information that can be copied en masse, and this copying process, by its very nature, inevitably introduces errors into the text. Or, if you prefer a more neutral language, let’s talk not about errors but about textual variations—a slightly different version of the original story, say.
The RNA (the “raw” molecule of DNA) of the cause of Covid-19 is no exception to this ironclad rule, and the more the virus manages to produce copies of itself by kidnapping human cells, the more variations appear – it is mathematical. Many of them will be of no use, but at least some may be favored by natural selection if their new “text” allows them to spread more easily throughout the human organism.
Unvaccinated populations are paradise in this process of producing variants, precisely because vaccines considerably reduce the chances that the virus will invade new cells and people. (In the case of current immunizers against Covid-19, the barrier against transmission brought about by vaccines is far from perfect, but it is still considerable, not to mention the protection against hospitalization and death.)
For the coronavirus, the world is one—just as it should be one for us. Places with low vaccination coverage will continue to print countless copies of the best-selling Book of Corona, increasing the chances that one of them will be able to break through all the defenses so costly mounted by the vaccination effort. (In time: we still don’t know if this is the case with omicron—the truth is, we know very little about it at the moment.)
Let no one think that this is a problem unique to African countries. The complete vaccination coverage of the states in the Northern region of Brazil, for example, has not yet exceeded 50% of the population (in several cases, less than that), and the situation is even less comfortable in many municipalities. Looking at the national average is not enough to understand this heterogeneity that is dangerous for those who live in South Africa and Manaus, but also for all of us.
We know exactly what needs to be done. We have the tools to act. To protect each of us, we must protect everyone.
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