Asteroid recently discovered, named 2024 YR4, it has an average of a 2% chance of hitting the Earth in 2032. While the chances of an impact are small, scientists closely watch the space rock to reveal more details.

Not known much about the 2024 yr4but the asteroid is estimated to have a width of 131 to 295 feet (40 to 90 meters), “a range of size comparable to that of a large building,” said Dr. Paul Chodas, Director of the Center of Object Studies near Earth or Cneos, in the Propulatory Jet, California, in Nasabora’s.

This is not even close to the size of the asteroid “killer of the planets” that hit Earth 66 million years ago and led to the disappearance of the dinosaur. The “asteroid murderer” was estimated to have a diameter of about 6.2 miles (10 kilometers) and marked the last known great asteroid that hit our world. The “asteroidal killers” on the planet are space rocks that are 1 km wide and could have a devastating effect on life.

But smaller asteroids can cause regional disaster if they are in a conflict orbit with Earth, so scientists have to learn as much as possible – as soon as possible – for the 2024 YR4.

Acquiring more information about asteroids can reset the chances of a direct blow. However, astronomers have only a certain amount of time to observe the asteroid before it disappears in April. Now, they are planning to turn the “powerful eye” of the James Webb’s space telescope in the direction of 2024 YR4 in the hope of defining the size and orbit of space rock.

Monitoring of a potentially dangerous space rock

The Last Alert System or Atlas telescope in Rio Hurtado, Chile, first discovered the 2024 YR4 on December 27th.

Estimation of asteroid size has changed very little since then, despite the multiple observations using a series of telescopes, because the space rock can only be studied using the amount of sunlight. The amount of light reflected from the asteroid surface is used to estimate how large it is.

However, the Webb’s telescope, scheduled to launch the 2024 YR4 observations in early March, sees the universe in infrared light. The Webb will be able to measure the heat reflected from the asteroids and providing a much more accurate size estimate, according to a Nature study published in December.

Risk Assessment

Understanding the exact size of the asteroid can help astronomers to assess the dangers if the 2024 YR4 is in the future in the course of conflict with the Earth.

“If the asteroid is proven to be at the high end of its estimated range of sizes, the Earth conflict could cause explosion and damage to an area of ​​up to 50 kilometers from the point of impactAs, “Chodas said. “The likelihood of this damage range is due to the incredibly high speed (about 17 kilometers per second or 38,028 miles per hour) with which the asteroid would penetrate the atmosphere“

Asteroids of this size have hit the Earth every thousands of years and can cause serious damage to local areas, according to ESA.

In 1908, a 30 -meter -wide asteroid (98 feet) hit the Podkamennaya Tunguska River in a remote Siberian forest in Russia, according to Planetary Society. He leveled trees and destroyed forests of 830 square miles (2,150 square kilometers).

And in 2013, an asteroid of 20 meters (66 feet) entered the Earth’s atmosphere over Celiabinsk, Russia. It exploded in the air, releasing 20 to 30 times more energy than the first atomic bomb, creating brightness greater than the sun, emitting heat, destroying more than 7,000 buildings and injuring more than 1,000 people.

But if the 2024 YR4 ultimately has the largest possible size, the results could be significantly worse, according to ESA.

“If it is found that the asteroid has a diameter of 50 meters and if it is confirmed to be a rocky starfish, the results will be similar to those of the Tunguska impact in 1908, where a surface (2,000 square kilometers) was destroyed and 20 million trees burned down“, According to a document notified by the service.

About 3,000 new objects near the Earth are found each year, but it was more difficult to find asteroids within the range of 2024 YR4 because they are dark, smaller and more difficult to detect with telescopes. Scientists estimate that there are about 600,000 rocky objects similar in size to the asteroid, but only about 2%, or 12,000, have been found, according to ESA.

“Tiny asteroids hit the earth all the time, disintegrate into the atmosphere and fortunately cause little damage to the ground“Larry Denneau, an astronomer at the Astronomy Institute of the University of Hawaii, said and a lead researcher at the Atlas telescope. “Larger asteroids can cause much more damage, but they hit the earth much less often. That is why we constantly watch the whole sky to ensure that we will be prepared in view of possible threats“