In recent months, polls for Colombia’s presidency have shown little change, indicating an almost certain runoff between leftist Gustavo Petro and rightist Federico “Fico” Gutiérrez.
Now, however, a new character is gaining strength. With populist style, xenophobic and misogynistic speech, in addition to short sound bites, popular videos on TikTok and extravagant style — he even gave an interview to CNN in his pajamas — Rodolfo Hernández quickly climbs in the polls.
He beat centrist Sergio Fajardo, a former mayor of Medellín, known for urban reforms that made the city into a model, from third place, and now steals votes from Fico — Petro, in turn, lost three percentage points. In the latest survey by Invamer, Petro follows first, with 40.6%, Fico has 27.1%, and Hernández, 20.9%, a much higher index than he had in March, when he had only 9%.
For Daniel Coronell, Colombia’s top political analyst and editor of the website Los Danieles, Hernández embodies a “perfectly understandable” protest vote. “There are many who do not want to see the impunity of the powerful rewarded or the new tainted by war,” he said, referring to both the right and the left. “Hernández’s voters are tired of the political frictions of these groups. But he doesn’t seem to think long term, as the last-minute remedy he offers could end up worse than the disease.”
Carlos Lemoine, from the Centro Nacional de Consultoria, says, in turn, that Hernández’s growth demonstrates that his message is connecting with what part of the population thinks.
Among the candidate’s promises is the cut of expenses, such as cars and drivers of congressmen, the reduction of the number of embassies and consulates and, in a generic way, “the end of corruption”. He also promised to “clean up” the Colombian Football Federation, which he considers corrupt. On the other hand, he is in favor of legalizing drugs as a way to end drug trafficking.
When asked about the use of profanity and unkind adjectives, he claimed to be spontaneous, someone who “talks that way to friends”. For expressing himself like that, he was prosecuted in Bucaramanga — and lost. Hernández said the local fire department was made up of “fat” and “lazy”.
His campaign style, which bears similarities to the events of Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil, is new in Colombia: on social media, he calls for motorcycle and truck marches, the “rodolfonetas”.
“Welcome to the Rodolfo caravan. Participate by car, truck, tractor, motorcycle, horse, donkey or even on foot”, the posts read. At rallies, supporters wear T-shirts with phrases such as “I support the old man,” a reference to Hernández’s 76-year-old. In every place he visits, he wears local hats and clothes.
Like other populists, he often says he’s not in politics for the money. That, he says, he already has. “I worked to buy the things I own today,” he said, referring to the penthouse where he lives in the most upscale neighborhood of Bucaramanga. Some media outlets call him the “Colombian Trump”.
The son of a tailor and a tobacconist’s manager, Hernández made his fortune in real estate in the department of Santander, in the north of the country. Despite selling himself as an “outsider”, he is not a stranger to politics. He was mayor of Bucaramanga, the region’s capital, and left the post well evaluated, with about 50% of popular approval, even after being the subject of an investigation for irregularities in the contracting of public services and favoring family members. When called upon to respond to the case, he resigned. The case is not yet concluded.
In its trajectory, there are also tragic events. In 1994, the extinct FARC (Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia) guerrillas kidnapped his father, and Hernández paid the ransom. Ten years later, the ELN (National Liberation Army), a guerrilla still active, kidnapped his daughter, killed by the criminals.
Even so, Hernández is not vindictive and promises more effort to implement the peace agreement with the FARC and resume negotiations with the ELN. Strong criticism of the current president, Iván Duque, accuses him of doing little to pacify the country.
As the phenomenon is relatively new, no research was carried out with a second-round scenario between Petro and Hernández. Fico, currently runner-up, is supported only by the Uribistas, as he is not a direct godson of former president Álvaro Uribe. If the Uribista bloc transfers its support to Hernández, he could become a greater threat to the leftist, as Fico stagnated in the polls.
In recent days, Hernández received the support of Ingrid Betancourt, who had less than 2% of voting intentions and left the electoral race. Despite the low figure, the now ex-candidate carries strong symbolic value, having been held hostage by the FARC for years. For Coronell, an eventual Hernández administration would already start with great difficulties, since he does not have support in the new Congress or alliances with the country’s traditional parties. “We would be entering unknown territory,” he says.
