On the 100th day of the Ukrainian War, a festival of truisms uttered by the main actors in the conflict helps support the assessment that the crisis is far from having a solution.
Starting with Russia, which invaded its neighbor on February 24, launching the biggest military action in Europe since the Soviets took Berlin as the Allies advanced west against the Nazis in 1945.
“One of the main objectives of the operation is to protect the people of the people’s republics of Donetsk and Lugansk. Measures have been taken for this and some results have been achieved. This work will continue until all objectives are achieved,” said the spokesman for the Kremlin, Dmitri Peskov.
He is right, partially. Its boss, President Vladimir Putin, has put the so-called liberation of these separatist territories in eastern Ukraine as one of his priorities, and the violent assault that has already taken 90% of Lugansk, according to the British assessment, goes in the way of that – what “liberate ” means, and modus operandi, are other issues.
Peskov obviously did not speak of the failures of the first phase of the war to take Kiev and Kharkiv, the country’s largest cities, and the difficulties Russian forces face in the field. Or the promise not to take territory for itself, while it has already conquered much of the south of the country and established a corridor between the Donbass and the Crimea annexed in 2014.
But he spoke about accusations that Putin is bringing famine to Africa, given the blockade of Ukrainian grain exports through the Black Sea. Creative, Kremlin-friendly solutions are on the table, and the Russian president will meet an African Union delegation this Friday (3) to discuss the matter.
On the Ukrainian side, a 36-second video summarized what President Volodymyr Zelensky has been saying in an increasingly unconvincing way. “Victory will be ours. State representatives have been here, defending Ukraine for 100 days,” he said, alongside his government officials.
Again, partial truth. Ukrainian resistance, fueled by Western weapons, has been praised even by Russian observers, who believe Putin underestimated his adversary. For the purposes of TikTok and Western TV networks, Zelensky has already managed to emerge a hero out of the crisis.
But that doesn’t solve the real problem, which is the fact that the 20% or so of lost territory is unlikely to be Ukrainian again, even if Putin doesn’t win a victory.
The eight-year civil war in Donbass, which began after Russia annexed Crimea without firing a shot, shows this. The risk of the lines stabilizing at some point is great, as Ukraine’s Defense Minister said on Friday (3), when assessing Russian reinforcements in the southern region of Kherson.
Perhaps less than a negotiation, there could be a Donbass-style freeze on the war. It was up to an unknown UN official (United Nations), the coordinator for the crisis in Ukraine Amin Awad, to summarize.
“This war will not have a winner,” the Sudanese said in a statement. He spoke under the impact of thousands of deaths and the “unprecedented phenomenon” of 14 million, 44 million Ukrainians displaced from their homes — at least 4.7 million out of the country.
But it is also a political assertion. As well as another, made this Friday by the spokeswoman for the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Maria Zakharova, which sheds a dark historical light on the debate on the effects of the war on the European security environment.
“Berlin has set a course for the accelerated remilitarization of the country. How can this end? Unfortunately, this is well known in history,” he said. The Soviet Union, the country of which Russia is the legal heir, lost 27 million citizens fighting Nazi Germany from 1941 to 1945.
In response to the war, the Germans have tripled their defense spending this year, adding a €100 billion fund to retrofit fighters, helicopters and armored vehicles. Earlier, Russia had sharply criticized the US for promising advanced missiles to Kiev, citing the risk of a clash between the nuclear powers.
There were several impacts of the war on the continent. Among them, the explanation of the ambiguous role of Turkey, the attempt to join Finland and Sweden in NATO, the division between the Eastern European members of the military alliance, Berlin/Paris and USA/United Kingdom. That’s not to mention the dispute over Russian oil and gas embargoes, which has required juggling to accommodate Putin allies such as Hungary.
Worldwide, the 100-day war has changed the geopolitical landscape, with China seeking to position itself as Putin’s ally, peacemaker and Washington’s challenger for the spoils of the crisis at the same time. In the economy, the inflationary pressure of the energy and food crisis generates fears of a recession.
