According to the latest IAEA estimates, the Islamic Republic now has 43.1 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium.
The Governing Body of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is meeting today in Vienna with its agenda western draft decision which criticizes and advises Iranamid the stalemate and tensions in the negotiations with a view to the re-entry into force of the 2015 international agreement on nuclear power program of the Islamic Republic.
This text, which has been prepared by the USA and E3 (Britain, France, Germany), demands that Tehran “cooperate fully” with the International Atomic Energy Agency.
Adopted by the 35 member states of the IAEA, which meets at the IAEA headquarters in the Austrian capital and meets until Friday, it will be its first decision to criticize Iran since June 2020, a sign of growing impatience. Western.
As the Islamic Republic day by day violates its commitments by limiting its cooperation with the IAEA, part of the UN system tasked with certifying the peaceful nature of the Iranian program.
In a recent report, the IAEA criticized Iran’s lack of “satisfactory”, “technically credible” answers to traces of enriched uranium found at three undeclared facilities in the country.
“Send message”
Although these activities took place before 2003, “nothing forgives Iran’s systematic inability to cooperate seriously in the investigation,” the IAEA said. Kelsey Davenport, specialist at the Arms Control Associationwhich was asked about it by the French Agency.
“Approving a critical decision is necessary to send a message, to point out that this obstruction will have consequences,” he argues.
For its part, Iran promises an “immediate” response to any “political” action by the West, warning against any “non-constructive” initiative, as talks to return all parties to full compliance with the Commonwealth of Independent States. Action Plan, according to the official name of the international agreement of 2015 – are at a dead end.
Negotiations resumed in April 2021 in Vienna for the return of the US government under Joe Biden under the CSD, which was signed to prevent the Islamic Republic from acquiring nuclear weapons – although Tehran denies ever having such weapons. intention.
Washington withdrew from the agreement in 2018, during the presidency of Donald Trump, which characterized the CSD as insufficient, and unilaterally reinstated US financial sanctions against Iran, leading the latter to default on its commitments.
If the decision is approved by the IAEA Board, it could “interfere with the negotiation process”, China and Russia, parties to the agreement, have warned, along with E3.
Via Twitter, the Russian Ambassador Mikhail Ulyanov called for “intensified diplomatic efforts” instead of adopting any decision that would provoke Tehran.
In the shadow of Ukraine
Although the climate is becoming more tense, the Clement Term, a researcher with the International Institute of Iranian Studies (RASANAH), does not imagine that there can be an interruption of negotiations.
“Against the background of the war in Ukraine, the Europeans are not prepared to provoke a new crisis with Iran,” he explains. “The document is worded in a way that leaves the door open.”
The talks are currently facing a major hurdle: Joe Biden’s refusal to step down, to accept Tehran’s key request, which is to remove the Revolutionary Guards from the State Department’s blacklist of “terrorist” organizations.
The White House is concerned that the move would spark a storm of criticism from Republicans in an election year.
If Biden fears “high political costs,” there is no “comparison to the threat of a nuclear-armed Iran,” Davenport said. In its view, the US government would do well to “redouble its efforts to find creative solutions” in order for the parties to reach a compromise.
According to the latest IAEA estimates, the Islamic Republic now has 43.1 kg of 60% enriched uranium.
“A quantity that, if enriched by 90%, is enough to build an (atomic) bomb in less than ten days” in the worst case scenario, warns the weapons expert.
This is a much shorter period of one year than the one-year breakout time provided for in the 2015 agreement. Ms Davenport emphasized that “there is an urgent need to re-impose limits” and to restore the status of strict controls by IAEA inspectors.
