Less than two months after being re-elected with a victory over the far-right, Emmanuel Macron disputes the continuity of his government project with the other end of the political semicircle, the ultra-left.
This time, the alliance engineered by Jean-Luc Mélenchon threatens to derail the French president’s plans to win an absolute majority in the National Assembly, a crucial step in implementing his reform plans. The legislative election takes place in two rounds, this Sunday (12) and next (19).
The Assembly is made up of 577 deputies. For a coalition to achieve an absolute majority, it must win 289 seats. It is around this number that the outcome of the vote has become uncertain. If five years ago the alliance led by Macron’s party claimed 350 seats, now the wide margin could be lost to the union of the left acronyms, a new element in the French party scene.
The obstacle that has been imposed on the president was announced by Mélenchon himself a few minutes after his reelection was confirmed, on April 24. In his speech, he envisioned a united front capable of creating a “third round” and turning him into prime minister. In the following days, he led talks with other parties and, in early May, announced that the alliance was formed.
Named Nupes (New Ecological and Social Popular Union), the ticket unites, in addition to Insubmissive France, socialists, communists and greens, which together received 30% of the votes in the first presidential round – in third place, Mélenchon obtained 21.95 %. From improbable, due to the differences between the acronyms on points of the common program and the disapproval of some of its illustrious politicians, the alliance became the second biggest force in this campaign and has a chance to become the biggest opposition bloc in the Assembly.
According to Ipsos, Nupes and Macron’s coalition, called Juntos, are tied, with 27.5% and 28% of voting intentions, respectively. In third, with 20%, is the party of Marine Le Pen, defeated by Macron. However, due to the rules of the legislative election, which is not proportional, these percentages do not reflect the number of deputies that can win for each political bloc.
In the survey released on Wednesday (8), the projection of seats that the ticket around the president could obtain is between 275 and 315, while the left alliance would have a figure between 160 and 200. Le Pen’s acronym, National Meeting , who has not made alliances, appears with somewhere between 20 and 55 seats.
The gap between the two leading forces has narrowed. About 15 days ago, the pro-Macron group had between 290 and 330, compared to 165 and 195 for Nupes. According to the institute, despite the advantage, the presidential majority is not guaranteed. Under the rules, to win in the first round, a candidate must have more than half of the valid votes and at least 25% of the total electorate, something that is difficult to happen – in 2017, only four deputies won in the first round. When there is no winner, the second round is held among those who have received at least 12.5% of the votes of the total electorate.
According to analysts, when disputing each district under the same ticket, leftist acronyms increase their chances of reaching the second round, since, in a fragmented scenario, a single party struggles to reach 12.5%. “It was a masterstroke by Mélenchon. It is an unprecedented and important fact, which will have partisan consequences beyond this election”, evaluated political scientist Jérôme Jaffré, a researcher at the Sciences Po university, to the newspaper Le Figaro.
In addition, Macron would have underestimated the fact that it was no longer new, as it was five years ago, and the rejection by voters, many of whom only voted for him to prevent the winner from being Le Pen. The poll shows that, for 62%, government action after the election has been “too slow”. Purchasing power, one of the main themes of the presidential election, remains the main concern of the French.
In addition to having hesitated over the definition of the ministerial cabinet, announced almost two weeks after his inauguration, Macron also avoided making big announcements about the direction of his second term during the legislative campaign, which, according to the opposition, ended up emptying the debate of the proposals.
Mélenchon, for his part, continues to promise, as in the presidential campaign, to raise the minimum wage, freeze prices and control rents, in addition to opposing one of Macron’s main projects, raising the retirement age, from 62 to 65 years, which, according to the president, could happen in a year. The ultra-left advocates dropping the limit to 60 years.
Since last week, given the dynamics captured by the polls, ministers close to Macron have raised their tone against left-wing opponents, classified as a “forced marriage” for purely electoral purposes, not to “take the country forward”. In recent days, the debate has focused on the actions of police forces, criticized for their brutality against fans before the Champions League final and the death of a woman during a roadblock over the weekend. “Police kill,” Mélenchon posted on Twitter, prompting a new wave of criticism, including from Macron himself.
The president took advantage of the episode to bet on a campaign of fear, as he did in the final stretch against Le Pen. “Nothing would be more dangerous than adding to the global disorder the disorder in France that the extremes propose,” he said on Thursday.
In addition to winning an absolute majority, another uncertainty surrounds Palácio do Eliseu: whether or not 15 ministers who are also candidates for a seat in the Assembly will remain. According to the president’s directive, the losers will have to leave the cabinet.
One thing, however, seems certain and can interfere with the results. It is estimated that abstention will approach 54%, which would be a record and tends to benefit Macron’s coalition. “Depoliticization may favor a presidential majority, but it is a brutal reminder of the weak support the president has in public opinion,” wrote Brice Teinturier, deputy director of Ipsos.
