SIPRI: The world is heading for a period of nuclear rearmament

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The nine countries with nuclear arsenals are Russia, the United States, Britain, France, China, India, Pakistan, Israel and North Korea.

Her return Russian nuclear “threat” and tensions between the great powers: after 35 years of its reduction, the number of nuclear weapons on a global scale is expected to start growing again in the next decade, he predicts reference report published today.

In early 2022, the nine states with nuclear arsenals (Russia, USA, Britain, France, China, India, Pakistan, Israel and North Korea) had 12,705 nuclear warheads, 375 fewer than at the beginning of 2021, according to estimates by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. (SIPRI).

Since the absolute record of 1986 (over 70,000 warheads), this total has increased fivefold thanks to the steady reduction of the huge nuclear arsenals of the Soviet Union and the United States during the Cold War. THE Moscow and Washington however, they continue to own it 90% of the world nuclear arsenal.

But the era of nuclear disarmament seems to be coming to an end and the risk of nuclear escalation is now at a higher level than any other post-Cold War period, according to a report by the Swedish Research Center.

“Soon we will reach a point where, for the first time since the end of the Cold War, the number of nuclear weapons in the world may begin to rise, and this is a really dangerous phenomenon,” Matt Corda told AFP. from the authors of the report.

After last year’s “marginal” decline, the world’s nuclear arsenal is expected to grow “in the next decade”, according to the SIPRI.

The war in Ukraine has led to many outspoken references by the Russian president to the possible use of nuclear weapons, and several countries, including China and Britain, have begun formal or informal plans to modernize or expand their arsenals.

“It will be very difficult to make progress on disarmament in the years to come because of this war and the way Putin is talking about his nuclear weapons,” Korda said.

According to him, these worrying statements push “many other nuclear-armed forces to reconsider their own strategies” in their use.

Doubling the Chinese arsenal?

Although the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty entered into force in early 2021, after ratification by more than 50 countries, and despite the extension of the Russian-American START Treaty for five years, the situation has already deteriorated in recent years, SIPRI notes. amid concerns over Iran’s nuclear program and the development of supersonic missiles, even more difficult to contain.

The reduction in the total number of weapons is due only to the destruction of Russian and American nuclear warheads “which were withdrawn from service many years ago” and the number of weapons considered operational remains “relatively stable”.

According to the latest SIPRI estimates, Russia remains the country with the largest nuclear arsenal in the worldhad 5,997 heads (–280 at a time), deployed, stored or to be destroyed by early 2022. Nearly 1,600 of them are operational, the Institute estimates.

The US has 5,428 warheads (-120), but more developed nuclear weapons (1,750). They are followed by China (350), France (290), Britain (225), Pakistan (165), India (160) and Israel (90), the only country out of nine that does not officially admit to having nuclear weapons. arms.

As for North Korea, SIPRI estimates for the first time that the Kim Jong Un regime has 20 nuclear warheads. Pyongyang has enough fissile material to make another fifty.

Despite the diplomatic announcements, “all states equipped with nuclear weapons are increasing or modernizing their arsenals, and most are hardening their rhetoric about them and the role of nuclear weapons in their military strategies,” SIPRI said.

“In China, a large increase in nuclear arsenal is underway, with satellite imagery indicating the construction of more than 300 new missile silos,” the institute said.

According to the US Pentagon, Beijing may have 700 nuclear warheads around 2027.

Britain announced last year that it would increase the ceiling of its nuclear arsenal and that it would no longer disclose the number of its operational nuclear weapons.

France also launched a new nuclear submarine program in 2021, while India, Pakistan and Israel also appear to be developing their arsenals, according to SIPRI.

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