For Juan Gabriel Tokatlian, the first round of the presidential election in Colombia, marked by the defeat of traditional political forces, represents an important shock, but not a historic change.
According to the sociologist, who lived in the country for 18 years, the local elite that ruled for decades must reorganize itself to try to return to power after the final round of elections, next Sunday (19).
Major polls indicate that leftist Gustavo Petro and populist Rodolfo Hernández are in a technical tie within the margin of error, with a numerical advantage to second.
Does this election represent a historic change? We have to wait for the next election to find out if the change is real and structural. The Colombian elite knew how to govern with violence, inequality, cooptation and always had the full support of the US — against the cartels, against the guerrillas. It seems to me hasty to talk about historical change. We are seeing an earthquake in Colombian structures, but we are facing the elite that knew how to govern better, compared to other Latin American countries. Is better wait.
And what characteristics does this earthquake have? The key to understanding the election is strong anti-establishment sentiment. It is a fact present in the vote for Petro and Hernández, albeit for different reasons. The traditional parties and the more classical forces suffered a severe defeat. That’s the strongest.
Does this follow a worldwide trend? Yes, it’s a period thing. In the French election, traditional leaders were out of place. There is something that makes anti-establishment sentiment tend to win elections. Another element is the pandemic, which has brought a feeling against those in power. Re-election or a successor president is less likely. [Iván] Duke supported Fico [Gutiérrez] and made him sink in the polls. Covid has created a phenomenon marked by malaise. The Americas do not exceed 12% of the world’s population, but they had 43% of the dead, it’s a disaster.
How do you envision the beginning of a Petro or Hernández government? Petro is better prepared, he has a team, benches in Congress. But [opositores] will make your life hell, not just in terms of personal safety. I imagine a lot of campaigning against him from day one. As for Hernández, I believe they will give a 100-day truce — and then they will also make his life impossible.
Surveys show a certain deceleration of Hernández. What is this due to? In the first round, not much was demanded of him, he avoided the debates and grew up due to the strategy on social networks. In the second round, although there were no debates, he was more exposed. And many people began to ask themselves: “Why are we voting for this gentleman?”. It’s the kind of candidate that it’s better to know less than more. He may be reaching his roof — which doesn’t mean he can’t win the election.
Mr. gives much credit to the campaign. She was very well designed for a character like him. Short sentences and messages are more difficult to deconstruct; not having to debate prevents one from getting into controversial issues that could complicate it. He’s a character who’s said opposite things to what he says today. In the first round he spoke of female empowerment, now he released sexist phrases [“O ideal seria que as mulheres se dedicassem à criação dos filhos em casa” e “as pessoas não gostam de mulheres metidas no governo”]. The campaign also made him speak easy phrases about difficult issues, such as “I am in favor of peace” or “I want to improve relations with Venezuela”, without presenting a program to do so.
Does the issue of governance also matter? For a more enlightened and conservative electorate, it was easy to support Hernández, but it is now clear that the difficulty in Congress will be enormous. [seu partido terá apenas dois parlamentares], their probes for the ministry face difficulties. So we can speculate that he must want to rule by decree, decide important things unilaterally.
Did the disarticulation of the center allow the emergence of Hernández? Emptying, yes, because those votes seem to have flown to him. It is the product of a new form of politics, which emphasizes the individual. There was a vote moved by emotion, in a 77-year-old gentleman who looks like an ordinary Colombian, has patrimony built by work, a daughter disappeared by action of the National Liberation Army.
In a country where there are few votes, there are sectors that feel represented by the type of person who is Hernández, who worked hard and now feels alone, abandoned by the State, who believes it is necessary to make drastic decisions and is tired of politicians. Petro cannot do the same, he cannot reinforce the characteristics of his trajectory because he was a guerrilla. On the contrary, he has to show that he has moderated.
x-ray | Juan Gabriel Tokatlian, 68
Born in Buenos Aires, he is a sociologist with a specialization in international relations from the School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins University (USA). Vice-rector of the Department of Political Science and International Studies at the Universidad Di Tella (Argentina), he lived 18 years in Colombia and was a professor at the Universidad Nacional and the Universidad de los Andes.
