Afghanistan was forgotten from the international news for almost a decade, at the end of the American occupation carried out in the wake of the attacks of September 11, 2001, planned by Osama bin Laden under the guard of the Taliban.
In August 2021, in a spectacular military campaign, Islamic fundamentalists took the country by storm and accelerated Joe Biden’s announced withdrawal from the country. It was an international embarrassment for the US, but also a geopolitical shock in the region, which saw Washington’s forces disengage from their biggest quagmire in order to act against China in the Indo-Pacific.
In the same way that they regained the spotlight, the Taliban found themselves taken away from them. It seems like a decade, politically, since the extraordinary events that took place less than a year ago: the world is facing a new war in Europe, the world economy is under a huge stress test.
All of this allowed the Taliban to harden their regime as they had promised they would not. Women progressively lost the rights conquered in the 20 years of western presence and had to cover their faces again. There are reports of violence against minorities and, in rural regions at least, draconian rules of conduct have re-emerged.
The remaining opposition fled or cast themselves inland. With the drama of the Ukrainian War and international upheavals, all of this has passed relatively under the radar of Western media interest, as would the game.
The Taliban’s problems, however, have not disappeared. The country has faced an ongoing humanitarian crisis for decades, but it has worsened with the end of official foreign aid to the government. It grew exponentially during the years of the occupation, reaching US$6.7 billion in 2011, in World Bank-corrected values.
That includes everything, including the assembling of what looked like a mighty Afghan National Army, dismantled by well-trained and experienced fundamentalist warriors in a mere two-week offensive. But humanitarian aid was a central part: of the 39 million Afghans, according to the UN (United Nations), 23 million are considered extremely vulnerable to hunger and disease.
Aid values have been falling and, in 2019, reached US$ 4.3 billion. Both the US and the European Union, occupiers and major donors, cut aid to the government as soon as the radicals returned to the power from which they had been expelled in 2001. Gradually, humanitarian aid returned, organized by non-governmental and supranational entities, such as the UN itself. .
Until April, the last available data, US$ 1.8 billion had arrived in food and medicine, basically. The UN estimates that at least US$ 4.4 billion is needed to guarantee Afghan livelihoods this year. Not to mention the refugee crisis.
Before the fundamentalists came back, 80% of government revenue came from abroad. The Taliban also saw $10 billion in foreign reserves frozen by their former rivals abroad, and there is no credit. Countries such as the United Arab Emirates and Turkey have established communication and business channels, which they already had before, as well as China and Russia. But it is unclear how much these allies, veiled or not, are helping.
Thus, the ongoing tragedy of the earthquake that struck the country on its unstable, politically and geologically, border with Pakistan opens a window of opportunity for the regime. Not by chance, the government has already asked for foreign aid.
You will have to welcome her on her sad return to the world’s leading role for a few hours or days; maintaining support while resuming medieval practices in dealing with its citizens, however, is a very different story. When he was targeted by Islamic terrorism worse than his own last year, the window also opened, only to be closed afterwards.
