Brazil should soon abandon the position of sixth most populous nation in the world. With accelerated growth, Nigeria will pass the country later this year, displacing it to seventh position, according to projections in a UN report published on Monday (11).
It is estimated that the country will reach the end of this year with 215.3 million inhabitants. The nation on the west coast of Africa will reach 218.5 million. The Nigerian growth rate is noteworthy, which 50 years ago had a population equivalent to 60% of that of Brazil in the same period.
The numbers make up the World Population Prospects report, whose edition this year brings unprecedented estimates that take into account the Covid pandemic. For Brazil, the document helps to fill a data gap left by the absence of the Demographic Census, postponed for two consecutive years — the last edition is from 2010.​
Brazil should reach its population peak in 2046, with 231.1 million inhabitants, and then begin to decline, reaching the end of the century with around 184.5 million —14% less than it has today.
Thus, the country arrives in 2100 outside the list of the ten most populous in the world – it should be in the 11th position, followed by the Philippine archipelago. Until then, it will be displaced by the Democratic Republic of Congo, the United States, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Tanzania and Egypt.
As a result of the health crisis, the country witnessed a decrease in life expectancy, a phenomenon that occurred all over the world. In Brazil, however, the fall was greater. From 75.3 years in 2019, the expectation for Brazilians was 72.8 last year (down 2.5 years). Globally, the average drop was 1.8 years (from 72.8 to 71 years).
As in the world, however, the number tends to be recovered — in the Brazilian case, as of 2023. Projections, by the way, show that the country can reach 2050 with an expectation of 81.3 years. One hundred years earlier, in 1950, when monitoring began to be carried out, it was estimated that Brazilians would live, on average, 48 years.
Following the trend demonstrated in the previous report, from 2019, the current document shows that the growth rate of the Brazilian population corresponds to almost half of the global average —0.45% per year against 0.84%, respectively. Hence the fact that the population began to decline in the country four decades earlier than the world population.
Nigeria, for comparison purposes, has an annual growth rate of 2.3% and is expected to more than double in size by the end of the century, reaching 546 million inhabitants and ranking third in terms of population, behind from India and China.
The fact that the number of children has decreased in proportion to the number of women in Brazil is one of the factors that make up the equation that explains the country’s scenario. In 2022, for each woman, an average of 1.6 children are born – a figure that tends to remain until the end of the century. 60 years ago, that number was 6 births per woman.
The recently released report also shows the accelerated aging of the population. While in 1950 only 2.4% of Brazilians were over 65 years old, this number will reach close to 10% in 2022 and should exceed a third of the Brazilian population by the end of the century, with 33.5% elderly.
The growth is even greater in the group of even older people, over 80 years old. Today this group represents only 1.7% of the Brazilian population, but the figure should have a jump of almost eight times and reach 14.8% of the population at the end of the century.
