Joe Biden embarks on his first trip to the Middle East as president of the United States, on Tuesday night (12), thinking both about the possible victories to reap and the problems he will be forced to avoid – the biggest of them being the timing. .
When the Israel, Palestine and Saudi Arabia tour was announced in early June, the price of oil was at a record high, and the trip to a region that is a major global supplier was seen as an attempt to potentially get around the issue: Biden could convince countries to increase production and lower prices.
“Energy resources [da região] are vital to mitigating the impacts on global supplies of Russia’s war in Ukraine. And the approximation via diplomacy and cooperation reduces the risks of advancing extremist violence that threatens our territory. [dos EUA]”, wrote the president in a recent article in the newspaper The Washington Post.
The price of oil, however, has fallen in recent weeks: it went from the range of US$ 120 in June to the current US$ 95, amid expectations of a recession that could even hit the US in the coming months. “Countries like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are not motivated to produce more and bring prices down; they are taking advantage of rising prices,” pondered Samantha Gross, director of energy security at the Brookings center, in a debate.
The timing becomes more delicate in a context in which Biden is experiencing serious image erosion in the US, which threatens the Democratic Party in the legislative election in November. In May he made a trip to Asia from which he has already returned without great practical results in his luggage.
Now, the visit to the Saudis had a new high domestic political cost. In 2020, Biden criticized Donald Trump for his closeness to Riyadh, especially in the context of the assassination of Jamal Khashoggi, a Post journalist killed and dismembered in 2018 at the country’s consulate in Turkey. American intelligence points out that the death was ordered by Prince Mohammed Bin Salman, who denies involvement.
In the campaign, the Democrat promised to make the Saudis “pay the price” and treat them “like the pariah they are”. But, in office, he maintained the decades-long partnership, slowly resuming the relationship.
Democratic congressmen even sent a letter asking the president not to go to Arabia. “The bloodstains on it [MbS] have not yet been cleaned up,” Senator Tim Kaine said. Thirteen rights groups said that resuming relations “not only betrays campaign promises, but is likely to give the prince more power to commit further violations.”
Until the publication of this text, it was not clear if Biden would meet with MbS, because the detailed agenda was not released – it is only known that he leaves for Jedda on Friday (15).
The president countered criticism by saying he acted to hold the prince accountable in the Khashoggi case. “We’ve reversed the blank check policy we inherited,” he said. “My administration has made it clear that the US will not tolerate action against dissidents by any government.”
Before dealing with this problem, on the first stop of the trip, Biden will meet Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid, at an equally inopportune moment. The government of Naftali Bennett was dissolved at the end of June, and Lapid rules without powers to take major measures, pending the November election – a meeting with former premier Binyamin Netanyahu is also on the agenda.
The parade will serve more for Biden, who advocates a two-state solution to the conflict with Palestine, to make a difference with Trump. The Republican angered Palestinians by moving the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem and backing a partition plan that would leave West Bank residents in isolated areas connected by tunnels (an idea that ended up on the shelf). He also stitched together the Abraham Accords, which re-established Israel’s relations with nations such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
Biden will now seek to celebrate the progress of this integration – with the White House noting that he will be the first American president to fly from Tel Aviv to Riyadh – and, by meeting Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas, he will try to calm the mood: Palestinians complain about the delay in reopening a consulate closed by Trump in 2018.
The trip should still aim for Iran. Biden aims to rebuild the 2015 deal under which Tehran agreed to reduce its nuclear capability in exchange for Trump’s imploded sanctions relief, but the Iranians, Israel’s sworn enemies, are growing ever closer to Russia, which the US seeks to punish because of it. of the Ukrainian War.
Before returning to Washington, Biden also hopes to cash in on the truce in the war in Yemen, obtained with the help of US diplomacy. For that, he must go to a summit with representatives from Egypt, Iraq and Jordan.
