The Commission points out in its document that there is a great risk that Moscow will completely turn off the gas tap
Big risk Moscow to permanently cut off natural gas flows sees the Commission, according to a relevant draft available to it by the Bloomberg agency, and in this context it plans to recommend a package of additional measures that each EU country should take in order to limit natural gas consumption and reduce future costs for businesses and consumers.
According to the publication, the EU is planning a series of actions, such as reduced use of heating and cooling, to mitigate the effects.
“Immediate action could reduce the impact of a sudden supply disruption by a third“, the Commission points out in the document, which is still subject to changes before its final approval on July 20. “Irrespective of a short-term disruption, early joint action at EU level at this critical time in the storage filling process will reduce the need for a possible and more painful reduction in demand later in the winter, in the event of a disruption of flows from Russia,” he adds.
The big bet for the Union, of course, is to ensure that there will be sufficient natural gas reserves for the winter, when demand for heating peaks.
However, simulations show that in the event of a complete shutdown from July, storage could fluctuate as little as 65% to 71% in early Novembersignificantly below the 80% target, according to the paper.
If the tap is closed later, for example in October, the risk of Europe “running out” of gas is smaller, while there would also be time to take actions to deal with the energy crisis.
According to the Commission document cited by Bloomberg, total flows from Russia are now less than 30% of the average from 2016 to 2021.
“The gas situation in the EU is at a critical juncture,” the document notes, and underlines that “everyone can save gas, even if they belong to protected sectors, such as households or buildings managed by public authorities, industries that have fuel switching possibilities and, depending on the national context, also the electricity sector’.
The package of measures expected to be proposed by the Commission to the member states includes the following actions:
– fuel change, both in industries and in energy production, for the proactive saving of natural gas.
– market measures, including auctions or tenders, where governments provide incentives to reduce consumption by large users, mainly industries.
– information campaigns to reduce heating and cooling, as well as mandatory limits during a crisis alert level.
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