The management of Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi may be running out of hours. The country’s traditional political instability has resurfaced after ex-premier Giuseppe Conte, leader of the 5 Star Movement (M5S), announced that the party will not vote, this Thursday (14), on a decree in the Senate that is valid for one vote. of trust to the government.
As the party is part of the broad parliamentary coalition that supports Draghi, a possible outcome is the end of the government, after only 17 months, which could lead to the early call of new elections.
The decision comes after weeks of behind-the-scenes tension, threats and breakups. The decree being voted on is called Ajuda, a €17 billion package of measures to alleviate the impact of rising raw material and energy prices on households and businesses. The text, an initiative of the government, was approved in the Chamber on Monday (11), without the participation of the M5S deputies, who withdrew from the plenary — an action that will be repeated in the Senate.
“The country is on the brink of an abyss, the situation has changed. We are the only party putting pressure on the government. We need a different phase, and Draghi’s statements are not enough,” Conte said after an intense day of party meetings and a phone call. with the premier.
He says he does not agree with some points of the decree, but disagreements are already increasing for other reasons. At the end of June, the sending of weapons to Ukraine and the participation of Parliament in this type of decision widened the division and culminated in the departure of Minister Luigi Di Maio (Foreign Affairs), who set up a parliamentary group with about 60 ex-M5S.
Last week, in a meeting with Draghi, Conte handed over a list of nine points that the party considers key to remaining part of the coalition, including the creation of a minimum wage for workers. In response, the prime minister said that many of the topics are already part of the government’s priorities and said he did not work with ultimatums. “If they continue, you can’t work, and the government loses its meaning,” he said on Tuesday (12).
Although the government technically has enough numbers to approve Ajuda, the absence of a vote of confidence by a coalition party is considered a sign of loss of parliamentary support. An imminent downfall of Draghi can be followed by three scenarios. In the first, Draghi agrees to form a new Executive, with a smaller majority and without the M5S — something he says he is not willing to do.
“Another possibility is the definition of a new prime minister, in a bridge government,” according to Alfonso Celotto, a professor of constitutional law at Roma Tre University. The Italian parliamentary election is scheduled for the first half of next year, possibly in May.
Finally, if there is no agreement, the President of the Republic, Sergio Mattarella, may decide to dissolve Parliament and call new elections – Italy, however, has never held elections in the summer months.
One of the advocates of early voting is the only opposition force. The far-right Brothers of Italy party is now the best placed in the polls, with 22.5% of voting intentions. “War, pandemic, inflation, growing poverty, high bills, energy risks, food crisis. And the government of ‘the best’ is immobile, grappling with palace games,” wrote leader Giorgia Meloni on Twitter.
The line also has the support of Matteo Salvini, from the League, also from the far right: “If the M5S doesn’t vote on the decree, it’s over. Let’s go to the polls.” Second in voter preference, the center-left Democratic Party was in favor of continuing the government, but, before Conte’s announcement, its leader, Enrico Letta, had said that in the event of a fall, the early election is the way.
Elected in 2018 as the largest party, M5S has participated in all Executive formations since the beginning of the current legislature. Under the first Conte government, it split the coalition with the League. When Salvini brought about the fall of the government, in September 2019, the prime minister remade the majority with the PD. In February 2021, after another crisis in the midst of a pandemic, Draghi took over the so-called government of national unity, with all political forces except the Brothers of Italy.
In an identity crisis and with internal power struggles, the M5S has 10% of voting intentions in the polls, in fourth place, after being the preference of 34% of voters four years ago.
“The objective of the parties is the 2023 election. You have to decide to be in the government or in the opposition, to have a speech for the voters. And then you get any pretext to leave the government”, says Celotto.
