Separated by a week, the resignation calls by the leaders of two of Europe’s largest economies have triggered instability within borders, heightened uncertainty in a crisis-hit continent and swung open a global phenomenon.
Briton Boris Johnson and Italian Mario Draghi may be the most prominent faces in the wave of political turmoil, but they are not alone. Amid the consequences of the War in Ukraine, the attempts to recover from the pandemic – which has returned to ascending curves –, inflation and all sorts of scandals, a certain collective bad mood seems to impose an ineffable strain on the popularity of leaders.
Emmanuel Macron, in France, is trying to reorganize reform plans after the legislative election left its mark on his base in the National Assembly, depriving the government of an absolute majority. In Germany, Olaf Scholz continues to search for a voice that can fill the silence left by Angela Merkel with radical maneuvers such as remilitarization and the resumption of “dirty” coal energy. Joe Biden, in the US, sees less and less sympathetic numbers in the polls. In South America, even newly elected leaders already have crises to call their own.
Different domestic situations, but which make up a collective picture of low popularity. In Europe, the one who pulls the line is the British, forced to resign on the 7th, after a flurry of scandals – his successor should only be known in September.
Draghi, rated poorly by “only” 46%, saw that percentage rise seven points in a month, the worst level in 18 months in office. He remains head of government, after his resignation was rejected by President Sergio Mattarella, but his stay will depend on what he says and hears in Parliament next Wednesday (20).
“Tolstoy wrote that all happy families look alike, but unhappy families are in their own way. Here it’s the other way around. In many countries where the leader has low approval, the reasons behind it are similar,” says Matthew Kendrick, an analyst at Morning Consult, a consultancy that prepares a weekly survey on the performance of the world’s top leaders — figures cited here are in the July 6-12 survey.
According to him, although each country is facing challenges internally on different fronts, the rejection of politicians has a backdrop of inflation, accelerated globally in recent months by the prices of energy, food and fuel — the cost of living , anyway.
In the UK, the consumer index reached 9.1% in May, the highest in 40 years. In the euro zone, inflation in June was 8.6%, pressured by the cost of energy (which rose 41.9%, a record).
These are direct effects of the War in Ukraine, which blocked the circulation of Russian fertilizers and Ukrainian grain and led to reduced supplies of natural gas from Moscow. “People are struggling to pay the bills and don’t see a hopeful economic future. They largely blame their leaders,” says Kendrick.
Another Morning Consult survey measures people’s impression of their country’s ways. In the United Kingdom, 79% say they believe the path taken is wrong, the same answer for 74% in France, 72% in Italy and 66% in Germany.
“The economic impact of the war had a huge effect, and the cost of living crisis hit homes. No government, left or right, populist or not, could have expected to have to deal with this,” says Aidan Hehir, a professor at the School of Social Sciences at the University of Westminster.
It was an effect similar to that of another immediately preceding element, Covid. In both cases, government responses to crises reveal their essence. “The British government, for example, is made up of an elite that has no idea how to redistribute wealth. At the high cost of living they don’t know what to do; it’s beyond comprehension that anyone has a hard time paying for fuel. “
For the generalized dissatisfaction, however, the professor still identifies a historical root, growing since the end of the Cold War: in the 1990s, the idea that the world could become more peaceful and prosperous and that globalization and democracy would spread raised expectations. It was in the 2008 financial crisis that part began to feel left behind, with broken promises. “This generates anger. What we are seeing in Europe is the manifestation of very negative anger towards representatives.”
The fruits of this, as already seen, are the rise of populist and extremist political movements, which promise radical change — often pointing the finger at minorities. “But when they come to power, they don’t solve it, because they obviously misrepresented the source of the problem. Then comes a second wave of frustration”, he says.
The wave is then reflected in protests in the most varied places, from Argentina to Sri Lanka, passing through Ecuador, Panama and Hungary.
The heat wave in Europe makes it hard to imagine that the cold will soon return — and that homes will need heating, either gas or electric. But the cold temperatures are as certain as the risks inherent in the continuation of the war, including the possibility that the Western alliance against Russia will crack and further leadership changes will follow.
On any scale, national, continental or global, Hehir is betting that “it will be a very unstable winter.”
