Less than three months before elections in Brazil, President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) is one of the leaders with the lowest popular approval in Latin America. The Brazilian enjoys 26% support, ahead of the heads of state of Ecuador and Paraguay, both with 17%, and Peru, with 22%.
On average, Latin American leaders gather 40% of support from society, according to data gathered by the consultancy Prospectiva in 14 countries in the region, based on domestic surveys by institutes such as Datafolha (Brazil) and Cadem (Chile).
Considered average by analysts, the figure expresses the effects of a multidimensional crisis catalyzed by Covid, says political scientist Maria Villarreal, a professor at the Federal Rural University of Rio de Janeiro. As a result, there was a widening of dissatisfaction.
“There is a strong rejection of what can be called ‘captured democracies’, with the perception that the rulers do not work taking into account the inequalities and poverty that characterize Latin American societies”, says ​she, who also teaches at the Unirio.
Flavia Freidenberg, a researcher at the National Autonomous University of Mexico (Unam), sees the loss of a structured consensus in the 1980s, when many countries underwent redemocratization. “We agreed that we would live together democratically, but there has been a loss of pluralism and an increase in intolerance.”
The dictatorial regimes of Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua are excluded from the survey, as are Haiti, El Salvador and Honduras. Differences are also expected because national surveys have different methodology, samples and margins of error.
But if figures like Bolsonaro are under pressure, leaders like the leftist Andrés Manuel López Obrador, president of Mexico, are in a more relaxed mood — even amid an authoritarian shift, AMLO has a 62% approval rating, according to the latest data.
The high figure reflects the expansion of social benefits, especially in the south of the country, where the ruling Morena party predominates in state legislatures, but also expresses the president’s strength in Congress and among coreligionists, says Thiago Vidal, manager of political analysis for the Latin America of Prospective.
AMLO has about 55% support in the legislature, according to an analysis by the consultancy that calculates the percentage of legislators who support the government — in bicameral systems, only the Chamber of Deputies is considered. In Brazil, the rate is 68%, one of the highest in the region.
Added to this is the fact that the Mexican Congress has low fragmentation, that is, fewer parties sharing seats, which reduces the need for the leader to sew broad negotiations to get his agenda approved.
Finally, AMLO has significant leadership in its legend, unlike what happens, for example, in Argentina, with Alberto Fernández, where the figure of vice president Cristina Kirchner prevails. Recent surveys point to an average of 30% approval for the Peronist, which tends to fall with the worsening economic crisis.
Chilean Gabriel Boric has a 36% approval rating – he had 50% when he took over in March. In part, according to analysts, the drop is due to the high expectations created, the result of social outbreaks, but also to the young leader’s difficulty in approving proposals in a Congress where less than half support him. This week, the government announced an aid package to contain the effects of the worst inflation in three decades and the harsh winter, which is expected to cover 7.5 million people – 40% of the population – and could help alleviate the low popularity.
In Brazil, with an eye on these indices and the elections, Bolsonaro obtained the approval of the PEC nicknamed Kamikaze, which tramples on public accounts laws to allow the government to boost social benefits.
Another scenario that draws attention is that of Colombia. The Prospectiva survey compiled data on the approval of Gustavo Petro, elected in June and who will take office in August: today, 64% of Colombians say they approve of his figure, more than the 50% who elected him.
The indices, obviously, express the expectation in relation to the government, but they are also linked to the base that is drawn in the Legislative. By the arrangements that are designed, the future president has a share of 46%.
“He is managing to create a climate of trust because he has been very pragmatic”, analyzes Vidal. “He is creating a heterogeneous coalition, with parties from various ideological spectrums, and has met with many former presidents, managing to partially contain the fear that there was of polarization.”
For comparison, the current president, Iván Duque, will leave office with an approval rating close to 27%, according to the Invamer institute, well below the figures of his five predecessors before they left Casa de Nariño.
