The Brazilian political scientist Francisco Weffort challenged us in the early 1990s with an acute reflection on emerging democracies.
“New democracies. Which democracies?” it was the title of a suggestive article in which he questioned the quality of the new democracies in Latin America and Eastern Europe.
Paraphrasing the author, it is worth asking whether we are facing a new left turn in the region and, if so, to which left.
About the (not so) ‘old’ left turn
The emerging governments of Latin America during the first decade of the 21st century were representative manifestations of the so-called “turn to the left”.
These governments emerged in an external context characterized by a “raw materials supercycle”, from 2003 to 2011, a relative withdrawal of the United States from the region and the increase in the influence of other external actors, in particular China and, to a lesser extent, Russia and Iran.
There are two main characteristics of this political-ideological cycle: its ideological heterogeneity and its political stability.
Regarding the ideological, there were three variants within the universe of the political left in the region: radical (Venezuela, Bolivia, Ecuador and Paraguay), moderate (Brazil, Uruguay, Chile) and more moderate at the beginning, more radical at other times (Argentina). .
This diversity was marked by three axes: first, the type of relationship with the market (more friendly/more hostile); second, the role of the State (more present/less present); and third, the characteristics of democracy (incorporation or not of a participatory format).
As for the political stability that the region has experienced, it is supported by evidence.
Of the 16 elected officials in the 2003-2015 period, nine of them ended their terms within the established deadlines, two remain in their positions (Daniel Ortega in Nicaragua and Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela), one died in his fourth term (Hugo Chávez in Venezuela), one resigned at the end of his third term (Evo Morales in Bolivia), two were removed by political judgment (Dilma Rousseff in her second term in Brazil and Fernando Lugo in Paraguay), and one was removed by the Legislative Power (Manuel Zelaya in Honduras).
New left turn or unofficial turn?
A new political cycle has arrived in the region. If Lula’s electoral victory in the October presidential elections in Brazil is confirmed, we will be faced with a scenario in which the five main economies in the region will be governed by parties, fronts or coalitions of the different expressions of the regional left: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Mexico.
To this are added cases such as Peru and Honduras, which do not have a strong political tradition on the left, and the chronic cases of Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela.
As in the case of the previous wave, this time the landscape of the regional left is also heterogeneous.
On the one hand, the Bolivarian branch (Cuba, Nicaragua, Venezuela); on the other are countries where there is a dispute between mentors and successors (Alberto Fernández and Cristina Fernández in Argentina; Evo Morales and Luis Arce in Bolivia; Vladimir Cerón and Pedro Castillo in Peru); who is far from God and close to the United States (Andrés Manuel López Obrador in Mexico); and the uncertainties regarding its direction (Lula in Brazil and Gustavo Petro in Colombia) and the reforms (Gabriel Boric in Chile).
At the same time, the “new” turn coexists with a long electoral cycle characterized by the punishment of officialdom of different conditions.
The exception was Daniel Ortega in Nicaragua, in a context far removed from the guarantees of a free, competitive and transparent electoral process, typical of a representative democracy.
The anti-officialist climate also coexists with decreasing levels of social tolerance and shorter “honeymoons” for the new officialdoms.
The experiences of Pedro Castillo, in Peru, or Gabriel Boric, in Chile, and the defeat of Frente de Todos in last year’s legislative elections in Argentina, are very representative cases.
In short, ideological fragmentation, political polarization, punishment of old officialdoms and little tolerance for new officialisms seem to mark the new political time in Latin America.
