While the international community is witnessing a new phase of Russia’s war against Ukraine, the Cold War 2.0 between the United States and China has again reached a peak of tension that forced leaders Joe Biden and Xi Jinping to have their fifth conversation since they lived together. as heads of state.
The reason this time was Taiwan, due to the possibility of the Speaker of the US House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, visiting the island that China considers its own. Xi repeated words used at a virtual summit in November, saying Americans could get burned if they played with fire in support of Taiwanese independence sentiments.
The Democratic lawmaker plans to visit the island that China considers a rebellious province in August. If carried out, it will be the visit of the highest American official since Republican Newt Gingrich, who held the same position as Pelosi, went to Taipei in 1997.
The Chinese Foreign Ministry said such a trip by the number two in the American line of succession amounts to a violation of sovereignty. “Those who play with fire only get burned, I hope the American side sees that clearly,” Xi told Biden, according to Chinese media.
There was no report on what Biden responded. So far, in these conversations, he maintains formal respect for the idea of ​​”one China” that guides diplomatic relations between the countries, but also military support for Taiwan. In the American Congress, he works with the hypothesis that the trip will take place, according to the American press.
Biden himself acknowledged last week that the trip was “a bad idea”. The Democrat faces low popularity and midterm congressional elections now in September, and all he doesn’t need is a new crisis to manage.
The same goes for Xi, who will be reappointed in the same month for an unprecedented third five-year term as leader of the dictatorship, but is being challenged by a series of problems, ranging from difficulties in maintaining his zero Covid policy in the country to systemic economic risks, which has led to rumors of internal dissent in the Communist Party.
At the same time, on the other hand, having the popular Taiwan issue in the spotlight helps to shift public opinion to something else. Earlier this month, Beijing faced a very rare public rally in Henan (central China), where residents went to the front of the local branch of the Bank of China to protest over problems with accessing their deposits.
The US has been on an escalation in support of Taiwan since the Cold War 2.0 against Chinese rise was launched by Donald Trump in 2017. Since then, US officials, but at lower levels, have made frequent trips to the island. Invariably, they are responded to with incursions by Chinese military aircraft or naval exercises in the Taiwan Strait.
Such military actions have intensified over the past two years independently as well, making Taiwan consider that the Chinese invasion could come at any time. There are practical doubts about this, given the difficulties of the terrain, as the annual Han Kuang training underway in Taiwan seeks to make explicit.
But a blockade is more doable, although it involves the same constraint for Beijing, which is the US commitment to defend Taipei, risking a war between the powers.
In the Chinese press, more Carbonari nationalists even defended that the country should shoot down a plane with Pelosi, which obviously does not seem to be on the agenda. But that the visit will bring a military response, that seems unavoidable. In recent days, a large reinforcement of fighters from the Russian Flanker family was revealed at the Longtian base in Fujian, a province that targets Taiwan across the strait and gives its name to the country’s new aircraft carrier.
Despite the diplomatic disposition, the US kept its military musculature up to date. The Navy also announced on Thursday that it had sent the aircraft carrier group led by the USS Ronald Reagan to the South China Sea, another focal point of the rivalry with Beijing.
The message is clear: the American position that the sea, which has 85% of the area claimed by the communist dictatorship, is basically a place for free navigation. Chinese claims are based on the militarization of islets and atolls, which the UN ruled out as valid in 2016.
The bulk of China’s imports and exports pass through those waters, and Beijing sees the move by the US and allies as a way to keep the door open for future blockades.
In the Chinese press, speculation arose that the Ronald Reagan could be moved to cross the Taiwan Strait during an eventual visit by Pelosi, to deter more overt Chinese actions. One would assume that Biden wouldn’t do that, given that he opened the door to talk to Xi.
Tensions, however, remain high. Xi is an ally of Putin, and has already been admonished by Biden not to provide the Russian with a line of economic oxygen. It was no use: China only increased its purchases of hydrocarbons from Russia, effectively helping to keep Moscow above the waterline even under heavy sanctions.
The invasion of Ukraine is pointed out by the US as a model of what can happen to Taiwan, although the cases are quite different. The economic interdependence between the US and China is also an important factor in reducing risk.
