US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s likely visit to Taiwan is shaping up to be a major diplomatic clash with Washington’s main Cold War 2.0 rival, China.
The Chinese military “does not sit around waiting” while the deputy visits the island that Beijing considers a rebellious province, foreign ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian said on Monday. It was the most direct military threat made by Beijing since the trip became speculated.
Pelosi is on a trip to Asian countries, starting this Monday in Singapore. Officially, she will go to Malaysia, South Korea and Japan, but since last week there are growing signs that she will add a stop in Taipei.
She is frowned upon in Beijing: in 1991, she faked a headache on an official visit and went to Tiananmen Square to protest the massacre of students there two years earlier.
“China has used irresponsible rhetoric,” Pentagon spokesman Jack Kirby said in commenting on the case. He said politicians have the right to go to Taiwan if they want, and that there are no military risks embedded in the US action – which, if it were not, moved the aircraft carrier Ronald Reagan to the contested South Sea. from China, not far from the island.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said he “didn’t know” whether Pelosi would go to Taiwan. It looks like a smokescreen: She is an ally of President Joe Biden, and their party is in trouble in the race for the midterm congressional election in November. A show of force against the main rival always goes down well.
The problem is that provocation can always, as Kirby himself admitted, slide into “the risk of miscalculation” in the highly militarized Taiwan Strait region. President Xi Jinping himself told Biden by phone on Thursday that the US was “playing with fire”.
The Chinese have already made it clear that they will react, which could come in the form of a major air raid against the island’s defenses, more live-fire drills like the weekend ones, or something more incisive.
That something, despite Chinese nationalist bloggers calling for the delusional downing of Pelosi’s plane, would be some sort of deterrent to the plane’s path — perhaps an intercept with fighter jets. Even such an idea sounds aggressive in the extreme.
According to the Taiwanese press, Pelosi could arrive on the island on Tuesday night (2nd morning in Brazil) or Wednesday morning (3rd Tuesday night in Brazil). Three people with knowledge of the matter told Reuters the same.
For Xi is in a moment of great pressure and cannot risk any kind of real confrontation with the US. The restructuring of the country’s real estate market, central to its economy, is running awry: the bankrupt giant Evergrande failed to present the reform plan it had committed to delivering on Sunday (31).
Economic difficulties due to lockdowns to ensure Xi’s zero Covid policy have also taken a toll. The leader is expected to be reappointed for a third five-year term in November, something unheard of since 1982, when Deng Xiaoping instituted the two-term limit to prevent the perpetuation of personalist leaders.
Within the Cold War 2.0, Beijing’s biggest ally, Russia, has already shown support for the Chinese policy towards Taiwan. Americans and allies accuse Xi of preparing an invasion of the island similar to the one that Vladimir Putin decided against Ukraine and, despite the historical contexts being incomparable, the Chinese leader has already made it clear that he wants Taiwan integrated in any way to the mainland dictatorship.
It would not do so now for the very high risk, analysts speculate, of bringing the US into a war. Washington recognizes the Chinese right over the island, but in practice it supports it, equips it with weapons and promises military protection in case of aggression. In addition, there is the fear of failure of military action, given the complex characteristics of the Taiwanese terrain.
