In Iran’s capital last month, the Russian president warned his Turkish counterpart without hesitation against any new Turkish military operation in Syria to push back the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG), which Ankara considers the Syrian wing of the Workers’ Party. Kurdistan (PKK).
The war in Ukraine and possibly the start of another in Syria will dominate the new meeting that will be held today in Sochi by the president of Russia, Mr Vladimir Putin and his Turkish counterpart, Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
Three weeks after their meeting in Tehran, the Turkish head of state will meet the Russian president again in the Black Sea resort, boosted by Ankara’s recent diplomatic success that facilitated the international agreement on resumption of Ukrainian grain exports through the Bosphorus.
In the Iranian capital last month Putin bluntly warned him against any new Turkish military operations in Syria to repel the Kurds of the People’s Protection Units (YPG), which Ankara considers the Syrian arm of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK).
For some analysts, recurring tensions are part of it “competitive cooperation” which defines as they say the relationship of the two leaders for the last twenty years.
“Russia’s war against Ukraine restored Turkey’s self-image as a key geopolitical player and restored Erdogan“, noted recently Asli Aidindasbasmember of the European Council on International Relations.
According to her, “most Turks favor their country’s position“, where is “almost the neutrality between East and West».
Negotiation of a ceasefire
Turkey’s systematic effort, despite being a NATO member state, to remain neutral vis-a-vis Moscow regarding the Ukraine issue has begun to bear fruit.
After many months of efforts, Moscow and Kyiv signed an agreement in Istanbul under the auspices of the UN. The first shipment of corn to leave Odessa since the war broke out on February 24 arrived in Lebanon and more will follow, somewhat allaying fears of a global food crisis.
Turkey now wants to secure the start of negotiations in order to agree ceasefire between the Russian president and his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky, possibly in Istanbul.
“We discussed whether the grain agreement could be an opportunity (to agree) a lasting ceasefire“, the Turkish Foreign Minister said yesterday Wednesday Mevlut Cavusoglu after a meeting he had with his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov in Asia.
But the effort has been complicated by Ankara’s repeated threats to launch a full-scale military operation in Syria, where Russian and Turkish interests collide.
Moscow is the main protégé of President Bashar al-Assad, supporting him against organizations that were at least partially supported by Turkey.
Today, Mr. Erdogan insists that he wants to the Turkish army to cross the border again and create a security zone in areas already patrolled by Syrian and Russian troops, to push back Kurdish armed groups he describes as “terrorist”.
“It is possible that the (today’s) meeting will raise the issue of the eventual invasion of Syria, for which Turkey has not received the green light from either Russia or Iran“, commented the international relations expert Solly Ozel of Has University of Istanbul. Russia will ask for something “in return”, he discounted.
A game of patience
For some Turkish media, this is what Vladimir Putin would really like unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). Ankara has supplied Ukraine with several heavily armed Bayraktar-TB2s, which Western military analysts say have shown their effectiveness against Russian tanks.
According to US officials, a Russian delegation went to Iran to discuss the possible purchase of hundreds of UAVs. Mr. Erdogan himself referred after his return from Tehran to Mr. Putin’s request for the purchase of such aircraft.
But the statement was later redacted by a spokesman for the Turkish government, who assured that the head of state was just joking.
But the representative of the Kremlin, Mr Dmitry Peskovinstead seemed to give food to the script, assuring that “military and technological cooperation is always on the agenda of the two countries.”
There is yet another potential source of tension between the two presidents, who are known for often being late. In Tehran, Erdogan was forced to be patient, he waited for Vladimir Putin for about 50 seconds, in front of the camera of the official Turkish news agency: it was zoomed in on his face, in which the tension was evident. For some, it was payback, as the Turkish president had set up the Kremlin occupant for nearly two minutes in 2020.
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